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The current time is: 10/23/2017 2:21:36 AM
 (2000-Pres) Current Day Military talk (No Partisan Politics)    
AuthorMessage
SJ
Belfast N Ireland, UK
top 10
E-9 Sergeant Major
Posts: 697

Crisis in Northern Ireland Peace Process.
Posted on: 4/9/2017 2:57:01 AM
The N Irish road to peace has been a rocky one. Wolf has been cried so often that commentators like me are loth talk up difficulties. But yes, this time Houston, we do have a problem.

A number of factors have coalesced to produce the perfect storm;

First, the Good Friday Agreement (GFA) was designed to deliver peace- not good devolved government.

Secondly, the GFA unwittingly enhanced sectarian politics. Unionists and Nationalists were encouraged by the system to indulge in a carve up in tribal interests.

Thirdly, the system was not designed to have a political opposition. It was a mandatory coalition. As the bigger parties became bigger, Sinn Fein (SF) and the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) were able to exclude the smaller parties. It was a loveless marriage between SF and the DUP, but it kept them in power.

Fourthly, to secure a deal in 1998, contentious loose ends were not addressed. Things like dealing with the past (what was an act of war and what was a war crime?), flags/emblems, and those contentious parades were continually kicked like a can down the road. Even Dr Richard Haass could find no solution.

Fifthly, SF under Gerry Adams had one eye on the 'Sinn Fein Project' (to get into coalition government in the Republic of Ireland). This often meant demonstrating that they were a fit party for coalition and tag along with the DUP in the north. This fed apathy amongst their supporters and many stopped voting or switched vote to more socialist alternatives.

Finally, the illness and death of Martin McGuinness coincided with a scandal over a Renewable Heating Initiative(flawed system of subsidy on wood chip fired boilers). The First Minister Foster refused to stand aside while a public enquiry investigated her role in the affair. McGuinness threatened to resign (a move that would collapse the power sharing executive). Foster assumed he was bluffing, and was visibly shocked when he did just that.

The resulting election was brutal. Foster resorted to getting the Protestant unionist vote out by referring to giving concessions to nationalists as "feeding crocodiles".

This derogatory abuse emboldened the apathetic and dormant Catholic vote, they rallied to Sinn Fein and demonstrated that, in real terms, the demographic paradigm has happened. With Brexit and being outside the EU- while the Irish State remains in - many nationalists want the border and reunification back on the table. Or more accurately, if Scotland gets a referendum, they want parity.

And now we are in crisis. Groundhog day again.

kaii
Edinburgh, UK
top 10
E-9 Sergeant Major


Posts: 1884

Re: Crisis in Northern Ireland Peace Process.
Posted on: 4/9/2017 5:19:02 AM
Developments are certainly worrying SJ, hopefully both sides come to their senses and realise direct rule from Westminster is a worse option than Stormont, but there is alot of history and personal pride in this of course.
---------------
A fool and his money are soon elected.

mick
Belfast, Ireland
top 50
E-4 Specialist


Posts: 79

Re: Crisis in Northern Ireland Peace Process.
Posted on: 4/9/2017 7:36:43 PM
To be honest I dont know what to make of it all,I work up to 50-60 hours a week supporting my Wife and young son and maybe Im paranoid but I dread to think that The Troubles were to break out again I cant go through that again and I certainly dont want my son to grow up through that the way I had to.
---------------
Sir,I'll have you know I cannot be bought and I cannot be threatened,but you put the two together and I'm your man.

George
Centre Hastings, ON, Canada
top 5
E-9 Cmd Sgt Major
Posts: 5313

Re: Crisis in Northern Ireland Peace Process.
Posted on: 4/9/2017 9:07:18 PM
Just a wish and a prayer for peace in Northern Ireland.

I hope that you can work things out.

Cheers,

George

scoucer
Berlin, Germany
top 5
E-9 Cmd Sgt Major
Posts: 1924

Re: Crisis in Northern Ireland Peace Process.
Posted on: 4/10/2017 8:09:51 PM
SJ,

Any reports on N.Ireland would be welcome. Any news about Brexit would also be welcome. Nobody seems to have a clue what is happening - including the gouvernment. Is the UK really so polarized as it seems from here ?

Trevor
---------------
`Hey don´t the wars come easy and don´t the peace come hard`- Buffy Sainte-Marie

Some swim with the stream. Some swim against the stream. Me - I´m stuck somewhere in the woods and can´t even find the stupid stream.

Lightning
Glasgow, UK
top 20
E-7 Sgt First Class


Posts: 442

Re: Crisis in Northern Ireland Peace Process.
Posted on: 4/11/2017 10:57:34 AM

Quote:
Is the UK really so polarized as it seems from here?--scoucer


Yes and it's never been so bad. Every man for himself and anybody with an opposing view is a leftie/swivel-eyed loon/racist/libtard etc etc.

Cheers,

Colin
---------------
"There is no course open to us but to fight it out. Every position must be held to the last man: there must be no retirement. With our backs to the wall and believing in the justice of our cause, each one of us must fight to the end."

SJ
Belfast N Ireland, UK
top 10
E-9 Sergeant Major
Posts: 697

Re: Crisis in Northern Ireland Peace Process.
Posted on: 4/13/2017 8:20:54 PM

Quote:
SJ,

Any reports on N.Ireland would be welcome. Any news about Brexit would also be welcome. Nobody seems to have a clue what is happening - including the gouvernment. Is the UK really so polarized as it seems from here ?

Trevor
--scoucer


Good question as always Trevor!

Brexit first: One fascinating hypothesis I recently read in the New Yorker by Benjamin Wallace Wells "The despair of learning that experience no longer matters" (can some talented whiz find a link?)

The study by Case & Deaton argues that the non graduate work force traditionally traded their trade skills/experience to earn higher wages/pension rights as they aged.

In a post industrial modernity that ability to bargain has diminished as the craft and skills have gone. But the demographic is aware of the fact that they are relatively worse off than earlier birth cohorts. This rebellion against elitist politicians was expressed via Trump and Brexit. They vote to "turn back the clock" to an age when they had collective bargaining power and disposable income. That is- in their collective memory - when America was great, and the UK had a National Health free because of National Insurance. You probably died in your 60s from bad diet/smoking, but Hell- you died with dignity.

N Ireland- we have had 19 years of peace. The Good Friday Agreement delivered that. Now we need an agreement on delivering good government and tying up loose ends - like the past.

Slan'

SJ

scoucer
Berlin, Germany
top 5
E-9 Cmd Sgt Major
Posts: 1924

Re: Crisis in Northern Ireland Peace Process.
Posted on: 4/14/2017 9:31:26 AM

Quote:

Quote:
SJ,

Any reports on N.Ireland would be welcome. Any news about Brexit would also be welcome. Nobody seems to have a clue what is happening - including the gouvernment. Is the UK really so polarized as it seems from here ?

Trevor
--scoucer


Good question as always Trevor!

Brexit first: One fascinating hypothesis I recently read in the New Yorker by Benjamin Wallace Wells "The despair of learning that experience no longer matters" (can some talented whiz find a link?)

The study by Case & Deaton argues that the non graduate work force traditionally traded their trade skills/experience to earn higher wages/pension rights as they aged.

In a post industrial modernity that ability to bargain has diminished as the craft and skills have gone. But the demographic is aware of the fact that they are relatively worse off than earlier birth cohorts. This rebellion against elitist politicians was expressed via Trump and Brexit. They vote to "turn back the clock" to an age when they had collective bargaining power and disposable income. That is- in their collective memory - when America was great, and the UK had a National Health free because of National Insurance. You probably died in your 60s from bad diet/smoking, but Hell- you died with dignity.

N Ireland- we have had 19 years of peace. The Good Friday Agreement delivered that. Now we need an agreement on delivering good government and tying up loose ends - like the past.

Slan'

SJ
--SJ


[Read More]

Thanks SJ.

Trevor
---------------
`Hey don´t the wars come easy and don´t the peace come hard`- Buffy Sainte-Marie

Some swim with the stream. Some swim against the stream. Me - I´m stuck somewhere in the woods and can´t even find the stupid stream.

SJ
Belfast N Ireland, UK
top 10
E-9 Sergeant Major
Posts: 697

Re: Crisis in Northern Ireland Peace Process.
Posted on: 4/16/2017 6:54:31 AM
Thank you Trevor. Did you agree with the analysis ?

 (2000-Pres) Current Day Military talk (No Partisan Politics)    
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