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 (2000-Pres) Current Day Military talk (No Partisan Politics)    
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George
Centre Hastings, ON, Canada
top 5
E-9 Cmd Sgt Major
Posts: 5294

Finger on the button
Posted on: 8/8/2017 5:41:14 PM
In light of the comments made yesterday by Kim Jung-un, threatening the US with "physical action" and Donald Trump's equally bombastic rhetoric today in response, I am concerned.

It was reported today that the North Koreans have nuclear warheads that have been miniaturized to fit in an ICBM.

Does President Trump have the power to order a pre-emptive nuclear strike without involving Congress?


The following is an excerpt from comments that Trump made today:

[Read More]

My reaction was one of fear that Mr. Trump is incapable of seeking diplomatic solutions.

Cheers,

George

hoosier
Dillsburg, PA, USA
top 60
E-3 Private First Class
Posts: 27

Re: Finger on the button
Posted on: 8/8/2017 9:45:34 PM
I don't expect this is going to make anybody feel a whole lot better, but all I could think of when I heard Mr. Trump's comments was that they seemed reminiscent of Saddam Hussein talking about the mother of all battles.

Hard to believe that 26 years have passed since Hussein uttered that line.

dt509er
Santa Rosa, CA, USA
top 20
E-7 Sgt First Class


Posts: 457

Re: Finger on the button
Posted on: 8/9/2017 12:18:50 AM
Hi George.

Your comment which is made by many in the media has me perplexed;
Quote:
miniaturized to fit in an ICBM
.

Just what does this mean? Is this just a play on words to say N. Korea has the ability to launch dirty bombs but no capability at launching nuclear tipped ICBM's? Or does this mean NK has small yield nukes that can strike US Territories but not actually mainland America/North America? Or..?

I find most of this rhetoric, even from Pres. Trump to be petty BS. Yet, I wonder why, why all this puffing of chests especially from NK against the US? What do they gain...more food stuffs from the UN, China, the US if they tame it down a bit.

And what of China; who I believe is the main driver of all this crap. Is China so dependent upon American trade going away that it will wreck their economy that they have unleashed a ravaged, largely ignored head-of-state dog in N. Korea to be their Broadstreet Bully?

On a different note but within the realm of this discussion, I find your comment about Trump; being
Quote:
incapable of seeking diplomatic solutions.
brash at best and based on the zeroing in of Trump with this comment, are we to say/think/believe that Kim Jong-un is the diplomatic version of Neville Chamberlin in this issue!?

Sorry George, not trying to be disrespectful, but it does take two in such matters and that murderous, tyrant Kim is way above Trump in ramping up the rhetoric and inflaming the issues. Is Trump helping the matter any.., I think this is why Americans voted for him; don't push us and expect us not to push back.

---------------
"American parachutists-devils in baggy pants..."

I take offense to your perception of being offended!

“If your experiment needs statistics, you ought to have done a better experiment.” Lord Ernest Rutherford

George
Centre Hastings, ON, Canada
top 5
E-9 Cmd Sgt Major
Posts: 5294

Re: Finger on the button
Posted on: 8/9/2017 10:23:07 AM
Hello dt509er.

I understand the desire to push back.

What I do not understand is how the decisions to do so could be put into the hands of a man of no military experience but who now wears the mantle of Commander in Chief.

It is rather laughable when you think about. You may as well have a video gamer in charge.

That is why I asked whether Mr. Trump could order a pre-emptive strike, nuclear or conventional without passing it through Congress.

Can he do that?

As well, because he likes to posture, he is making things difficult for people like Rex Tillerson, who is seeking to tamp down the situation through diplomacy and a concerted allied push back of a non-military nature.

So Trump draws a line in the sand. Now what? His bluster may sound good to some Americans but he has left no wiggle room. Now he either strikes or backs off and looks soft. Not too smart.

To me it sounds like a petty tinpot dictator, no different than the guy in North Korea.

But really there is no comparison in military power. The US is much more powerful. NK's nukes are not operational. There is little doubt that a strike on NK would destroy the regime.

But China doesn't want a united Korean peninsula. They don't want a war on their borders. The Russians have a small section of border with the NK's and I doubt that they want a war there either.

And neither China nor Russia want US troops right on their borders which is what would happen should NK be destroyed.

So there could be escalation with other countries dragged in, if Trump decides to strike. Do Americans want that?

So I think that talk is always better than war and intelligent talk is far better than bluster and BS just to prove how tough you are.

You guys have nearly 300,000 troops in South Korea. The NK's have a lot of artillery aimed at Seoul and so a rash decision by Trump could have serious consequences. Thousands will die, both military and civilian.

Putting those people in harm's way just to prove a point is irresponsible. Those US troops are willing to die for their country but a war with NK makes no sense.

The news people are trying to give the President credit for some sort of grand strategy. I just don't think that he is that smart and he keeps tripping up his advisors.

Rex Tillerson sounds much saner than the President right now.


Cheers,

George

morris crumley
Lawrenceville, GA, USA
top 10
E-9 Sergeant Major
Posts: 1188

Re: Finger on the button
Posted on: 8/9/2017 11:18:45 AM
George, if you are going to engage in yet another Trump tirade, I suggest you do so on LFF rather than pollute (200-present current military talk ( no partisan politics).

We are facing the final results of twenty five years of "kicking the can" while NOKO leadership steadily progressed to a time when nuclear weapons allows them to hold, not only just their own people hostage, but South Korea hostage. There is no good answer. Once North Korea joins the ICBM Club, then what happens if they invade the South? What is the viable option then.? With nukes in their pocket, then they become more of a danger to go after South Korea. That is why kicking the damn can has been such a pathetic loser of a strategy.

We face a future with the same dark options as we kick the can on Iran and it`s nuclear ambitions.

What I`m saying is that 25 years of diplomatic "solutions"...have brought us here. I hardly consider them to have been a "solution" to anything.

Respects, Morris
---------------
"You are a $70, red-wool, pure quill military genius, or the biggest damn fool in northern Mexico."

John R. Price
Wilkes-Barre, PA, USA
top 20
E-7 Sgt First Class
Posts: 462

Re: Finger on the button
Posted on: 8/9/2017 11:32:42 AM
George,

Yes talk is better and intelligent talk is even better still the problem is there has been talk and even intelligent talk going towards North Korea since the inception of North Korea but the only things coming back from North Korea is idiocy and lies.

How much military experience did Lincoln or FDR have? They guided/lead the country through the Civil War and WWII and I don't believe either served in the military although Lincoln was in the militia I believe in his youth.

Of course Trump can order a strike without Congressional approval. Clinton didn't have Congressional approval when he shot off missiles to try and get bin Ladin after the Embassy bombings in Africa.

And no the US doesn't have anywhere near 300,000 troops in South Korea its more like 30,000 if that.

With respect, and I am not a fan of Trump by any means, you are acting like this whole situation is Trump's fault and that North Korea is a innocent. That Trump is a lunatic and Kim the picture of sanity.
---------------
A battle long forgotten by our country in a war never understood by our country.
"to satisfy our endless needs and justify our bloody deeds, in the name of destiny and in the name of God"


John R. Price
Wilkes-Barre, PA, USA
top 20
E-7 Sgt First Class
Posts: 462

Re: Finger on the button
Posted on: 8/9/2017 12:08:12 PM
Morris,

"Diplomatic solutions" only work when both sides actually live up to the agreement. What we have had with North Korea is a series of Munich's were they never even considered living up to their end of the agreement. And I agree Iran has watched the cycle and is trying to follow the pattern.
---------------
A battle long forgotten by our country in a war never understood by our country.
"to satisfy our endless needs and justify our bloody deeds, in the name of destiny and in the name of God"


George
Centre Hastings, ON, Canada
top 5
E-9 Cmd Sgt Major
Posts: 5294

Re: Finger on the button
Posted on: 8/9/2017 12:35:04 PM

Quote:
George, if you are going to engage in yet another Trump tirade, I suggest you do so on LFF rather than pollute (200-present current military talk ( no partisan politics).

We are facing the final results of twenty five years of "kicking the can" while NOKO leadership steadily progressed to a time when nuclear weapons allows them to hold, not only just their own people hostage, but South Korea hostage. There is no good answer. Once North Korea joins the ICBM Club, then what happens if they invade the South? What is the viable option then.? With nukes in their pocket, then they become more of a danger to go after South Korea. That is why kicking the damn can has been such a pathetic loser of a strategy.

We face a future with the same dark options as we kick the can on Iran and it`s nuclear ambitions.

What I`m saying is that 25 years of diplomatic "solutions"...have brought us here. I hardly consider them to have been a "solution" to anything.

Respects, Morris
--morris crumley


Morris, I introduced the thread and the performance of your President is directly germane to the topic so I would suggest that you stop "polluting" this forum with your diatribes and screeds. The use of the truncated f...ing every second word does nothing to enhance your credibility.

There are consequences to engaging the NK's with military action. I described them on another post.

I do believe that you have calmer and saner heads than your President in your military. Hopefully, their advice will prevail.



George
Centre Hastings, ON, Canada
top 5
E-9 Cmd Sgt Major
Posts: 5294

Re: Finger on the button
Posted on: 8/9/2017 12:44:02 PM

Quote:
George,

Yes talk is better and intelligent talk is even better still the problem is there has been talk and even intelligent talk going towards North Korea since the inception of North Korea but the only things coming back from North Korea is idiocy and lies.

How much military experience did Lincoln or FDR have? They guided/lead the country through the Civil War and WWII and I don't believe either served in the military although Lincoln was in the militia I believe in his youth.

Of course Trump can order a strike without Congressional approval. Clinton didn't have Congressional approval when he shot off missiles to try and get bin Ladin after the Embassy bombings in Africa.

And no the US doesn't have anywhere near 300,000 troops in South Korea its more like 30,000 if that.

With respect, and I am not a fan of Trump by any means, you are acting like this whole situation is Trump's fault and that North Korea is a innocent. That Trump is a lunatic and Kim the picture of sanity.
--John R. Price



Quote:
With respect, and I am not a fan of Trump by any means, you are acting like this whole situation is Trump's fault and that North Korea is a innocent. That Trump is a lunatic and Kim the picture of sanity.


No I have not. But I am one of millions around the world who wonder just what the hell you people were thinking when you elected this sad, little man and gave him so much power.

I also believe that many Americans look at him with trepidation because he is a loose cannon and driven by ego.

As for Kim, who knows what he is about. He is a despot and interested only in preserving the legacy of his father which is the regime.

He has beggared his people to ensure that he has military power. I think that decades of isolation have altered the mind set of the NK leadership and indirectly the people of NK who have been told that everyone, especially the US wishes to destroy them. They believe that they are persecuted.


Thanks for correcting the number of US service people in SK. I was way off. But that doesn't minimize the danger that they and the millions who are in range of NK's artillery are in.

It won't be just the North Koreans who die by the thousands in a hot war.

NK could destroy Seoul before the US could respond effectively.

And I do worry that the Chinese and possibly the Russians on the northern border may decide to get involved because an invasion of NK could be construed as a challenge to their sovereignty and to their influence in what is their sphere of influence.

It's a frightening situation. Do you have confidence that Mr. Trump has any idea of the complexity of the problems in that part of the world, John?


morris crumley
Lawrenceville, GA, USA
top 10
E-9 Sergeant Major
Posts: 1188

Re: Finger on the button
Posted on: 8/9/2017 1:24:59 PM
And I believe that if someone from Canada is going to insult the voters of my country who did not vote as Canadians wanted...then this should at least be on the "Lunatic Fringe Forum" where it belongs!
---------------
"You are a $70, red-wool, pure quill military genius, or the biggest damn fool in northern Mexico."

George
Centre Hastings, ON, Canada
top 5
E-9 Cmd Sgt Major
Posts: 5294

Re: Finger on the button
Posted on: 8/9/2017 1:45:48 PM

Quote:
And I believe that if someone from Canada is going to insult the voters of my country who did not vote as Canadians wanted...then this should at least be on the "Lunatic Fringe Forum" where it belongs!
--morris crumley


By all means Morris, address the issue of North Korea without mentioning Mr. Trump. You will find it difficult.

I understand that the US is a very insular nation but you should know that the rest of the allied countries, not just Canada, watch carefully to see which way the wind blows with the advent of every new Presidential regime. And the wind is swirling with this one. There is no prevailing wind that can be relied upon.

And this one gives us all cause to pause because if, through his incredible lack of depth on most issues, he drags us all into some hot war, that is problematic.

The man has insulted a number of his allies including Canada since taking power so pardon me if there is little will to fawn over him or trust him. Does the US need the rest of us? I like to think so.

And you know what, based on the poll numbers I think that most Americans are in agreement with the rest of the world.


So while you continue to highjack the thread Morris, I will ask, does anyone else feel that the rhetoric should be dialled back on the part of the US and the President while the diplomats work their magic out of the public eye? That is how I feel. I don't see NK as a imminent threat and I don't see Kim as suicidal.


George

John R. Price
Wilkes-Barre, PA, USA
top 20
E-7 Sgt First Class
Posts: 462

Re: Finger on the button
Posted on: 8/9/2017 1:49:32 PM
George,

We were thinking that Clinton was a worse choice and it was our choice not yours.

Every politician is driven by ego and everybody driven by ego can be a bit of a loose cannon.

Kim is a lunatic period end of sentence. That is what he's about.

The point you aren't accepting is that how many hundreds of millions are going to be in danger once North Korea perfects their missiles and targeting software to be able to deliver nuclear weapons anyplace in the world? This march toward that point should have been shut down decades ago but as Morris stated it's been a policy of kicking the can forward for somebody else to do something.

It never is just one side that dies in any war. How many Canadians dies in Korea already in one war started by the North's saber rattling and desire to unify under their domination?

North Korea already destroyed Seoul twice and it was rebuilt. I believe it is the only major city in the world with bunkers, bomb shelter and regular air raid and artillery attack drills. How much longer do the South Koreans have to live with the fear?

I'm not sure what game the Chinese are playing but suspect it has to do with the desire to dominate the South China Sea but wonder why you are not calling for them to have cooler heads and think what they are doing. This isn't about either and with no North Korea threatening the South there would be no US troops in Korea. Plus I have to say they should be glad to be rid of the idiot and the economic drain he is to them.

I have more confidence in the people around Trump than I would those around Clinton nor did those around Obama. Caving in isn't a diplomatic solution it has consequences of the other side just coming back for more.
---------------
A battle long forgotten by our country in a war never understood by our country.
"to satisfy our endless needs and justify our bloody deeds, in the name of destiny and in the name of God"


John R. Price
Wilkes-Barre, PA, USA
top 20
E-7 Sgt First Class
Posts: 462

Re: Finger on the button
Posted on: 8/9/2017 2:04:39 PM
George,

The issue of North Korea has been going on since the 1950's and the issue of North Korea and nuclear weapons since the 80's. This hasn't just popped up in the last year.

He isn't dragging anybody its Kim and North Korea that is the one initiating the problem. What you want the US and rest of the world to role over and do nothing just as Chamberlain at Munich?

The poll numbers said he'd never get elected. So much for that idea.

Kim needs to dial back his rhetoric and North Korea has to change governments, its gone on too long. I think the rest of the world would agree on those statements unless its become as bat shit crazy as Kim
---------------
A battle long forgotten by our country in a war never understood by our country.
"to satisfy our endless needs and justify our bloody deeds, in the name of destiny and in the name of God"


George
Centre Hastings, ON, Canada
top 5
E-9 Cmd Sgt Major
Posts: 5294

Re: Finger on the button
Posted on: 8/9/2017 2:12:33 PM
But John, it doesn't have to be caving in. A diplomatic resolution is not a cave-in. It is a responsible solution to a problem.

The US must put aside the feeling that its power and preeminence is under threat.

NK isn't worth it, yet. Kim is just yapping, just like Dad.

I think that Rex Tillerson is cobbling together sanctions that could work, with greater support of the international community.

It will be necessary to convince the NK's that a nuclear armament deal is in their best interest.

The wild card is China. NK is within the sphere of influence of China. The US really has no business there except that it has supported SK for strategic reasons for decades.

China seems to be a very good poker player. The US, all countries for that matter, need diplomats and advisors who understand the Chinese.

I know this. The Chinese do not want a unified peninsula. They do not want US troops and arms massed along their border .

So it will be difficult to get them to squeeze NK and short of war, they are the only country who can do that.

The US and all of us need China to take the leadership role that it has been seeking for the last few years.

thanks John,

George

John R. Price
Wilkes-Barre, PA, USA
top 20
E-7 Sgt First Class
Posts: 462

Re: Finger on the button
Posted on: 8/9/2017 2:29:18 PM
George,

The problem with the diplomatic solution is there have been dozens of them since the end of the war and North Korea doesn't live up to their side for long at all. You and I may see it as not a cave in but Kim and all those before him do.

The problem with sanctions is they are passed on to the people and Kim and the government don't give a crap about the people.

China has been the broker in the past and in all honesty have failed or used N Korea for their advantage so why is it different this time?

China has been seeking a leadership role since Mao so again why is it different this time?
---------------
A battle long forgotten by our country in a war never understood by our country.
"to satisfy our endless needs and justify our bloody deeds, in the name of destiny and in the name of God"


morris crumley
Lawrenceville, GA, USA
top 10
E-9 Sergeant Major
Posts: 1188

Re: Finger on the button
Posted on: 8/9/2017 3:36:32 PM
John, you are right about China.

There was a 15-0 vote at the UN over the weekend for new sanctions against North Korea. There was great surprise that Russia and China did not use their veto. But, as you say, the sanctions take time to have effect, and the effect is usually far worse on the people of the country rather than the corrupt leadership.

And that if Russia and China even actually take part in the sanctions. China has imposed such punishments on North Korea in the past, but have allowed back-door measures that undermined them on the sly.

One would think that China would not want missile defense systems spreading throughout the region. One would think that a nuclear Japan would be in their realm of wishes.

Respects, Morris


---------------
"You are a $70, red-wool, pure quill military genius, or the biggest damn fool in northern Mexico."

George
Centre Hastings, ON, Canada
top 5
E-9 Cmd Sgt Major
Posts: 5294

Re: Finger on the button
Posted on: 8/9/2017 5:02:15 PM
China has matured as a nation. Despite some difficulties of late, it is still an economic power and it has considerable military power.

Perhaps with the growth of confidence and the increase in wealth among the middle class, this country is poised to take a more important role in the affairs of the world.

They are still a one party state and they are still currency manipulators but they have embraced a form of capitalism under the communist banner.

I think that if China hopes to maintain NK as a buffer state between itself and the west, specifically the US, then it may be compelled to rein in Kim.

So I think that we have to give diplomacy a chance first.

This business of a technological advance in the miniaturization of a nuclear war head has everyone running around half cocked.

Except for Rex Tillerson who has been a voice of reason and some of the military and intelligence people who have been interviewed on the tube, who all advise remaining calm and thoughtful. Watchful waiting.

An immediate attack on NK could lead to an escalation in tensions between the west and Russia and China. So I say give diplomacy a chance.


Cheers,

George

morris crumley
Lawrenceville, GA, USA
top 10
E-9 Sergeant Major
Posts: 1188

Re: Finger on the button
Posted on: 8/9/2017 8:00:16 PM
This from today`s Statement from Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis:

The United States and our allies have the demonstrated capabilities and unquestioned commitment to defend ourselves from an attack....The DPRK must choose to stop isolating itself and stand down it`s pursuit of nuclear weapons. The DPRK should cease any consideration of actions that would lead to the end of it`s regime and the destruction of it`s people.

While our State Department is making every effort to resolve this global threat through diplomatic means, it must be noted that the combined allied militaries now possess the most precise, rehearsed and robust defensive and offensive capabilities on Earth. The DPRK regime`s actions will continue to be grossly over-matched by ours and would lose any arms race or conflict it initiates.


Respects, Morris
---------------
"You are a $70, red-wool, pure quill military genius, or the biggest damn fool in northern Mexico."

George
Centre Hastings, ON, Canada
top 5
E-9 Cmd Sgt Major
Posts: 5294

Re: Finger on the button
Posted on: 8/9/2017 8:50:45 PM
Interesting statement Morris.

Partly in support of his boss I think, as we should expect.

The second paragraph may be somewhat premature. Does he have assurances that these unnamed allies are sympatico with this posture specific to DPRK?

Have they been asked what they think of this approach?

I am not suggesting that there would not be support for military action in North Korea but I wonder whether discussions have taken place.


BTW, I don't think that the North Korean leadership is delusional. They know that they are overmatched but they have considerable military assets on the peninsula and thousands will die on both sides of the 38th parallel before this regime is eliminated.

If the US truly wishes to engage the DPRK in talks as Tillerson has offered, they may need an intermediary who can pave the way. China perhaps?


Cheers,

George

brian grafton
Victoria, BC, Canada
top 10
E-9 Sergeant Major
Moderator


Posts: 1305

Re: Finger on the button
Posted on: 8/9/2017 9:30:42 PM
Morris, George.

Time to stop.

North Korea is, potentially, the most serious threat to peace since the Cuban Missile Crisis. Go back and read dt509's post. Look hard at the issues John Price raises. There is enough there to raise issues enough concerning NK (and it's constantly vilified leader) and the rest of the world.

I think George asks a fair question: can any potential US response be discussed without consideration of the public comments of the US President? The same question could be asked about NK, of course: Mr Kim is CIC in NK, and may have even more control over any acts of aggression. I'm not equating the two leaders here, though some have done so. I'm simply noting that both men, in their own ways, have tremendous power resting on their shoulders. A fair question, therefore, seems to be: "Are we at the mercy of two leaders who appear to be more concerned with power and image than with diplomatic solutions?"

dt509, you raise the following:
Quote:
Your comment which is made by many in the media has me perplexed;
Quote:
miniaturized to fit in an ICBM
.

Just what does this mean? Is this just a play on words to say N. Korea has the ability to launch dirty bombs but no capability at launching nuclear tipped ICBM's? Or does this mean NK has small yield nukes that can strike US Territories but not actually mainland America/North America? Or..?
My reading is that NK has developed a nuke sufficiently miniaturized to sit atop their current missiles, whether long-range or not. The issue isn't about yield or "dirtiness" but about capability. Any nuke delivered is not a welcome prospect.

I hear that current NK nuclear strength may total some 20 weapons. IMHO, the possibilities of 20 delivered nukes on US targets is more than sufficient.

I'm also given to understand that there are some questions concerning re-entry capability. Without this, the wedding of a nuke to a rocket is not a major threat. You gotta get the thing on target.


Quote:
I find most of this rhetoric, even from Pres. Trump to be petty BS. Yet, I wonder why, why all this puffing of chests especially from NK against the US? What do they gain...more food stuffs from the UN, China, the US if they tame it down a bit.
I agree with what you say, but I would be more comfortable with "rhetorical BS" if I had a better idea of the strength and authority of Secretary Tillerson and the US State Department.


Quote:
And what of China; who I believe is the main driver of all this crap. Is China so dependent upon American trade going away that it will wreck their economy that they have unleashed a ravaged, largely ignored head-of-state dog in N. Korea to be their Broadstreet Bully?
I'm probably too stupid to respond sensibly to your comment. I can't see how China carries the can for Kim, whose primal concern for state security seems to be driving his nuclear ambitions. I can't see a necessary link between US and Chinese economies as a driving point, given the other trade partners that are increasingly available to China as the US reassesses its trade procedures. China hasn't "unleashed" NK so much as allowed it to follow its own path to destruction.

It's one thing to want China to do the heavy lifting, but only when one considers how the US would respond were the requirements reversed. China remains not merely a sovereign nation but also one of the greatest economic powerhouses of the world.

Cheers
Brian G
---------------
"We have met the enemy, and he is us." Walt Kelly.

"The Best Things in Life Aren't Things" Bumper sticker.

Riaindevoy
Geelong, Australia
top 10
E-9 Sergeant Major


Posts: 1072

Re: Finger on the button
Posted on: 8/10/2017 4:02:35 AM

Quote:
......

Your comment which is made by many in the media has me perplexed;
Quote:
miniaturized to fit in an ICBM
.

Just what does this mean? Is this just a play on words to say N. Korea has the ability to launch dirty bombs but no capability at launching nuclear tipped ICBM's? Or does this mean NK has small yield nukes that can strike US Territories but not actually mainland America/North America? Or..?

......
--dt509er


It means that the warheads are now small enough that it can fit a rocket and light enough that they fixed amount of power a rocket has can send the warhead a long way. If the warhead was a big 2 ton whopper like the US/Soviets/British started off with they would need a B47/Tu16/Victor bomber to carry the thing around because it would be too heavy for a rocket to throw more than a few hundred miles.

For example the British Red Beard of the late 50s weighed 2000lbs for 15kt but the WE177 of the late 60s weighed 1000lbs for 450kt. Given a rocket only has a certain amount of power and fuel it will get the second warhead a lot further than the first, if it can even get the first off the launcher.
---------------
Vegetarian: the ancient tribal word for the villiage idiot; who was too stupid to hunt, fish and ride!

morris crumley
Lawrenceville, GA, USA
top 10
E-9 Sergeant Major
Posts: 1188

Re: Finger on the button
Posted on: 8/10/2017 9:28:11 AM
George, I agree that North Korean leadership is not delusional. Kim is a sick, pathetic, very disturbed man, but he is not stupid..nor mentally ill to the point where he is not capable of strategic thought.

It has always been an imperative that NOKO not be allowed to become a Nuclear power. Kim has accelerated the program because he has read that we were weak, that we were just words and timid bluster. He feels that once he can threaten the United States with nuclear missiles, then South Korea will tremble at every tool of intimidation he puts forth, knowing that the United States will not risk military interventions against a "member of the Nuclear Club."

As to our allies, the United States has recently had a series of exercises over the Korean Peninsula, US B1-B Lancers have done overflights along with Japanese and South Korean F-15`s. I think the message is pretty clear that attacks will be met with overwhelming force.

For my entire lifetime I have been listening to war drums and threats from North Korea. I recall, as a kid, North Koreans hacking US soldiers to death with axes during an attack along the DMZ. There is a long list of NOKO incursions across the zone..and the capture of the USS Pueblo. The parading of the American crew, the propaganda videos, all violations of all convention...and the constant blustering of death and destruction to the US and it`s allies. And for all that time, the response was more diplomatic, gobbledy gook followed by concessions to that pathetic regime.

The international community has even been complicit, in my opinion, by helping a country that starves it`s people while building up military assets...by actually helping provide food in answer to the time to time blusters and threats, an action that in actuality allows for the continued military build-up while bailing out the country`s collapse. ( Short-term humanitarian thinking that helps bring about long-term human suffering.) Anyone familiar with the "generational concentration camps?" You get picked up in the dead of night, without trial you are sent to the camps for some perceived offense against the government...and you and the next two generations of your family get to be born and raised and die in the camps.

For 25 years, from the Framework Agreement, a monumental deal (so we were told back in 94, I think) that "would ensure North Korea will give up it`s nuclear intentions," to today we have witnessed the sad spectacle of "diplomatic solutions" that did nothing but bring us to where we are today. (This is the same strategy that will bring about, as surely as the world turns, a "nuclear Iran.")

I must admit, I just can`t read China. It would seem that China would most definitely want to avoid a rash of North Korean refugees in event of war, and logic would dictate that they would not want increased militarism of Japan...yet, China has seemed set in doing nothing about North Korea..satisfied for that country to act as a vacuum, drawing all the attention away from China`s expansionist activities. It is a great irony that China watched and learned from the United States policy in the eighties of using technology, capitalism, and GDP to bankrupt the old Soviet system. They embarked upon a course of the reverse. Embracing limited capitalism, international trade, currency manipulation and unwise trade policy to use GDP against the West. We refused to brand them currency manipulators when they were, just accepted their constant willingness to allow copyright infringements, we even allowed them to have sensitive US technology of missile guidance....we gave `em that in the nineties! We opened up the "closed China" to help create a monster that has done nothing to ameliorate tensions with North Korea, while it "builds" military assets out of the South China Sea.

It`s a tough situation. Unlike fine wine, age has done nothing to make it any better. Kicking things down the road eventually leads you to a wall..where you have to pick the damn thing up...or leave it lay.

Respects, Morris
---------------
"You are a $70, red-wool, pure quill military genius, or the biggest damn fool in northern Mexico."

John R. Price
Wilkes-Barre, PA, USA
top 20
E-7 Sgt First Class
Posts: 462

Re: Finger on the button
Posted on: 8/10/2017 9:52:23 AM
Riain,

Am I right in saying that North Korea's missile program isn't that advanced yet? That they really can't go that far and aren't very accurate? No matter the ability to miniaturize the warhead?
---------------
A battle long forgotten by our country in a war never understood by our country.
"to satisfy our endless needs and justify our bloody deeds, in the name of destiny and in the name of God"


Lightning
Glasgow, UK
top 20
E-7 Sgt First Class


Posts: 442

Re: Finger on the button
Posted on: 8/10/2017 11:19:06 AM

Quote:
Riain,

Am I right in saying that North Korea's missile program isn't that advanced yet? That they really can't go that far and aren't very accurate? No matter the ability to miniaturize the warhead?
--John R. Price


Hi John,

I'd say that getting a rocket to fly a bit further pales in comparison to miniaturising a nuclear warhead. If they've got this far, they'll manage the rest.

The question for the world (not specifically the US) is what do we do about North Korea? Sanctions invariably don't affect the regime, as they won't starve before the people do.

Their military is inferior to that the US and its allies, but potent enough that they could cause serious damage to Seoul and other areas before any military response could neutralise their artillery and airpower.

The military clearly made moves to either remove their current leader and at least discussed it at some length, but were caught and subjected to arbitrary punishment, including torture and execution. The regime shows no signs of collapsing from within in the near future.

The Chinese and Russians will not tolerate a US-backed unified Korean peninsula.

There is no quick or easy diplomatic solution, but a jump to war shouldn't (IMO) be considered at all at this point.

Cheers,

Colin
---------------
"There is no course open to us but to fight it out. Every position must be held to the last man: there must be no retirement. With our backs to the wall and believing in the justice of our cause, each one of us must fight to the end."

George
Centre Hastings, ON, Canada
top 5
E-9 Cmd Sgt Major
Posts: 5294

Re: Finger on the button
Posted on: 8/10/2017 1:15:57 PM

Quote:
As to our allies, the United States has recently had a series of exercises over the Korean Peninsula, US B1-B Lancers have done overflights along with Japanese and South Korean F-15`s. I think the message is pretty clear that attacks will be met with overwhelming force.


Morris, I think that the North Koreans know that. They seem to get some perverse pleasure out of tweaking the nose of the US with foolish threats.

Mr. Trump, speaking extemporaneously, took the bait and now the world is apprehensive. What's next?

I also feel that the US must take the moral high ground and whenever Kim acts irrationally (and it is a calculated act), that the US responds firmly but rationally as Rex Tillerson has done.

As to nukes on the peninsula, well that seems to be a done deal.

Are you recommending a massive strike to eliminate this regime? We know that there will be repercussions should that occur.

Immediate effects will be the deaths of thousands of NK civilians. A nuke strike would obliterated thousands more and open up a can of worms.

I am not sure that we would want to go there.

Another immediate effect would be the deaths of thousands of South Koreans and US soldiers.

Long term, we just don't know what the political effects would be. China would not be pleased.

They came in to aid the North Koreans during the Korean conflict, not for any great love of the NK's but to ensure that the US and the west would not be sitting on its door step.

Russia borders on NK too and I presume that their desire to maintain a buffer between Russia and the west on that border would continue.

My point is that we don't know how the elimination of NK would be received or the degree to which escalation of hostilities would occur.


On another more philosophical point as a citizen of a smaller country who has had a nuclear industry for a long time, why should we be restricted by other powers who have nuclear weapons if we suddenly decided to develop nuclear weapons and a delivery system. Too costly and unnecessary but why does any country need approval.

It won't happen but why does the US and the rest of the Big 5, get to decide who will have these weapons?

And no, I don't want NK to have nuclear weapons. I wish that the world was free of weapons of this kind.

John R. Price
Wilkes-Barre, PA, USA
top 20
E-7 Sgt First Class
Posts: 462

Re: Finger on the button
Posted on: 8/10/2017 1:51:09 PM
Colin,

I agree that its just a matter of time but from a article I read maybe 6-7 months ago they really hadn't achieved any real level of consistent accuracy in targeting nor the range to be more than a serious threat beyond limited parts of Japan. Given that its just a matter of time doesn't it make more sense to act before they can hit anywhere in the world with accuracy?

Wouldn't it be in the best interests of China and Russia to curb Kim or get rid of him?

And I'm not talking a jump to war but covert or a single punitive surgical strike to set back their missile system development?

There has been no quick and easy diplomatic solution for 30 years and putting off the tough choices has only made the situation more dangerous.

---------------
A battle long forgotten by our country in a war never understood by our country.
"to satisfy our endless needs and justify our bloody deeds, in the name of destiny and in the name of God"


Riaindevoy
Geelong, Australia
top 10
E-9 Sergeant Major


Posts: 1072

Re: Finger on the button
Posted on: 8/10/2017 5:47:27 PM

Quote:
Riain,

Am I right in saying that North Korea's missile program isn't that advanced yet? That they really can't go that far and aren't very accurate? No matter the ability to miniaturize the warhead?
--John R. Price


Yes, they are using liquid rocket fuel of the type that the US abandoned developing in the late 50s with the Titan family of missiles, although the Soviets kept development going into the 70s. The US Polaris and Minuteman missiles of the early 60s used solid fuel, as did the Soviet missiles from the 80s. Liquid fuels are less storable and not able to kept ready for long periods of time, so perhaps only half the NthK missile fleet is ready to fire 24/7 with maybe 2/3 in a crisis.

Ballistic missiles are only guided while their rockets are burning so need to be ultra careful to ensure accuracy over long distances, half a second of arc makes for a massive inaccuracies at 3000 miles. As for what that means, more people died from the 13kt Hiroshima bomb than the 22kt Nagasaki bomb because it went off over hills on the edge of town. They will need probably 4 more long range tests, including ones on a less loftes trajectory, to make them suitably accurate.
---------------
Vegetarian: the ancient tribal word for the villiage idiot; who was too stupid to hunt, fish and ride!

morris crumley
Lawrenceville, GA, USA
top 10
E-9 Sergeant Major
Posts: 1188

Re: Finger on the button
Posted on: 8/10/2017 5:56:20 PM
No George, I am not advocating for a pre-emptive strike of any kind on North Korea. That ship has sailed with all the "diplomatic solutions" of the past 25 years.

There remains a great deal more that can be done to Korea economically. There is also a great deal of economic problems we can help lay at the feet of China...for not really doing much to bring Fat Bastard to heel.

But there have been specific threats made against US Territory...as well as threats made against the US mainland. While they have not fully developed the ability to hit the US ( at least I believe they have not) a direct threat has been made against Guam. That cannot be ignored. They must be made to understand that there would be drastic action taken in that event.

As to the philosophical arguments ...about "if A and B and C have nukes, who are they to tell D or E or H that they cannot have them," that argument means nothing at all to me. We should all understand that nuclear weapons is a dangerous commodity...but that proliferation is worse.

Korea shares technology and research with Iran. Japan wants nukes because Fat Bastard does. Saudi Arabia wants them because Iran will...and so it goes.

Respects, Morris


---------------
"You are a $70, red-wool, pure quill military genius, or the biggest damn fool in northern Mexico."

George
Centre Hastings, ON, Canada
top 5
E-9 Cmd Sgt Major
Posts: 5294

Re: Finger on the button
Posted on: 8/10/2017 7:12:06 PM

Quote:
And I'm not talking a jump to war but covert or a single punitive surgical strike to set back their missile system development?


Hello John,

There was a piece that I read not long ago suggesting that surgical strikes would not work because much of the research work in NK is being done underground.

I really don't know whether that is true. Has the US pinpointed targets that can be taken out with those big bunker busting bombs?

The article said that the North Koreans have dispersed their research and military construction plants all around the country and that the US doesn't know where all of them are located.

The underground bases have multiple entry points and it would be guess work to determine which guided bomb would do the most damage.


Here it is. It was on FOX news. Not my favourite cable news source but there you go.

[Read More]

The article also said that some of the NK military brass from the north are dissatisfied with Kim and could be amenable to a leadership change. I don't know whether any of that is plausible.

So the upshot of it all is that while a "surgical strike" sounds nice and clean, it would not result in a complete reduction of NK capabilities.

Even James Mattis said that the immediate reaction of NK would be to attempt to destroy South Korea using nukes and biological and chemical weapons. There are millions of people in the way of a vindictive NK seeking retribution for any attack.

Cheers,

George

brian grafton
Victoria, BC, Canada
top 10
E-9 Sergeant Major
Moderator


Posts: 1305

Re: Finger on the button
Posted on: 8/10/2017 9:43:07 PM
John R, that has to be something that can be assessed but perhaps not shared.

I've been chatting with friends who, in their work, have used guidance systems similar to those currently used by NK. There appears to be difficulties with accuracy. We were discussing how accurate a potential hit on Hawaii might be, and based on current information concerning NK guidance systems, we can add an additional negative to whatever threats they are accused of making.

Cheers
Brian G
---------------
"We have met the enemy, and he is us." Walt Kelly.

"The Best Things in Life Aren't Things" Bumper sticker.

John R. Price
Wilkes-Barre, PA, USA
top 20
E-7 Sgt First Class
Posts: 462

Re: Finger on the button
Posted on: 8/10/2017 10:59:55 PM
Just listened to a discussion on North Korea saying there is a diplomatic solution but it won't happen until China and Russia agree to real sanctions starting with oil and banking sanctions. The sanctions the UN approved don't include either.

That Trump didn't go as far as Obama with the rhetoric because Obama said "We can destroy you" in response to a threat from Kim.
---------------
A battle long forgotten by our country in a war never understood by our country.
"to satisfy our endless needs and justify our bloody deeds, in the name of destiny and in the name of God"


dt509er
Santa Rosa, CA, USA
top 20
E-7 Sgt First Class


Posts: 457

Re: Finger on the button
Posted on: 8/10/2017 11:04:57 PM

---------------
"American parachutists-devils in baggy pants..."

I take offense to your perception of being offended!

“If your experiment needs statistics, you ought to have done a better experiment.” Lord Ernest Rutherford

George
Centre Hastings, ON, Canada
top 5
E-9 Cmd Sgt Major
Posts: 5294

Re: Finger on the button
Posted on: 8/11/2017 6:23:45 AM
A different view dt509er



Michigan Dave
Muskegon, Michigan, MI, USA
top 5
E-9 Cmd Sgt Major


Posts: 2752

Re: Finger on the button
Posted on: 8/11/2017 9:54:37 AM
simply put,
[Read More]
---------------
"The brave men, living and dead, who struggled here, have consecrated it, far above our poor power to add or detract."

dt509er
Santa Rosa, CA, USA
top 20
E-7 Sgt First Class


Posts: 457

Re: Finger on the button
Posted on: 8/13/2017 5:13:31 PM

Quote:
A different view dt509er


--George


Different indeed George , wrong but different.
---------------
"American parachutists-devils in baggy pants..."

I take offense to your perception of being offended!

“If your experiment needs statistics, you ought to have done a better experiment.” Lord Ernest Rutherford

George
Centre Hastings, ON, Canada
top 5
E-9 Cmd Sgt Major
Posts: 5294

Re: Finger on the button
Posted on: 8/13/2017 7:18:33 PM
Hello dt509er,

Do you think that Mr. Trump has handled the situation well?

He took the bait tossed out by Kim. He should be smarter than that. He is engaging in a pissing contest with a country that is a light weight by comparison to the US.

I don't have much faith in his intellect or powers of analysis so it is quite frightening to contemplate that he would consider the annihilation of the people in the north end of the peninsula without giving thought to the consequences.

China has already said that if NK strikes first then it will remain neutral and then added that if the US carries out a pre-emptive strike that they could weigh in on the side of the North Koreans.

So war with China as a follow-up? It is not hard to see how it could happen.

Cheers,

George



kaii
Edinburgh, UK
top 10
E-9 Sergeant Major


Posts: 1884

Re: Finger on the button
Posted on: 8/29/2017 5:25:40 PM
So, the big question now is.

Did Japan choose not to shoot down the missile that passed overhead, or did they lack the ability to do so?
I not the missile was not aimed towards Guam, so the Americans would have known pretty much immediately that it was not an attack on them. So Kim seems to have embarrassed the Japanese PM, who only a couple of months ago confidently said that the country could shot down anything aimed at them.

K
---------------
A fool and his money are soon elected.

brian grafton
Victoria, BC, Canada
top 10
E-9 Sergeant Major
Moderator


Posts: 1305

Re: Finger on the button
Posted on: 8/29/2017 10:03:44 PM
Kai, aren't you missing a couple of other choices? E.g.:
• was there any point in Japan responding aggressively to a missile not on trajectory to land on Japanese territory? I would suggest there are reasons not to demonstrate defence prematurely.
• does in fact Japan have the capability to track the missile? I cannot believe they do not, given their own aerospace capability. Abe has not lost face here, IMHO.
• would shooting down an NK missile test shot be registered as so aggressive by NK that they might consider retaliating? Yes, and that could start a real shooting war (though I rather doubt it at this point).

I wonder exactly how synced US and Japanese forces are when it comes to nuclear issues. My assumption is that they have been moving further apart over the past decade, but remain in close and disciplined agreement about idiocies such as this latest NK nonsense.

NK now knows how Japan might respond to a feint. It won't. Japan just called NK, don't you think?

And, as a small aside, who would want Japan as an active enemy? Bushido – the ugly side of Japanese warfare in WW2 – is dead. But I don't believe the Samurai tradition can ever be expunged from the soul of Japan. And the samurai are formidable warriors.

Cheers
Brian G
---------------
"We have met the enemy, and he is us." Walt Kelly.

"The Best Things in Life Aren't Things" Bumper sticker.

Michigan Dave
Muskegon, Michigan, MI, USA
top 5
E-9 Cmd Sgt Major


Posts: 2752

Re: Finger on the button
Posted on: 8/30/2017 1:04:45 PM
Bri., & Kai,

We all know how formidable the Samurai can be!

[Read More]

just lightening up a serious mater!
MD
---------------
"The brave men, living and dead, who struggled here, have consecrated it, far above our poor power to add or detract."

kaii
Edinburgh, UK
top 10
E-9 Sergeant Major


Posts: 1884

Re: Finger on the button
Posted on: 8/30/2017 7:10:44 PM

Quote:
Kai, aren't you missing a couple of other choices? E.g.:
• was there any point in Japan responding aggressively to a missile not on trajectory to land on Japanese territory? I would suggest there are reasons not to demonstrate defence prematurely.
• does in fact Japan have the capability to track the missile? I cannot believe they do not, given their own aerospace capability. Abe has not lost face here, IMHO.
• would shooting down an NK missile test shot be registered as so aggressive by NK that they might consider retaliating? Yes, and that could start a real shooting war (though I rather doubt it at this point).

I wonder exactly how synced US and Japanese forces are when it comes to nuclear issues. My assumption is that they have been moving further apart over the past decade, but remain in close and disciplined agreement about idiocies such as this latest NK nonsense.

NK now knows how Japan might respond to a feint. It won't. Japan just called NK, don't you think?

And, as a small aside, who would want Japan as an active enemy? Bushido – the ugly side of Japanese warfare in WW2 – is dead. But I don't believe the Samurai tradition can ever be expunged from the soul of Japan. And the samurai are formidable warriors.
Cheers
Brian G
--brian grafton



Well, all your points are covered by 'choosing not to shoot the missile down" as per the first part of my statement - fact is that they did not shoot it down, and that could be either because they could not or because they chose not to. No other options.

It is most likely that Japan could track the missile, and had the capability to shoot it down, but chose not to for whatever reason (be it not to provoke NK or because they knew it was not going to hit - after all a ballistic missile isn't going to change course dramatically once it is airbourne, so relatively easy to calculate where it will land -if one can track it.) I am not sure shooting down a missile over own territory could be construed as "aggressive" though.

As it was, Japan sounded the air raid sirens while the missile was in the air and only switched them off after the missile had landed in the sea -perhaps indicating that they struggled to track it and calculate the exact course,at least initially.

Whether Abe lost face or not is difficult, almost impossible for us Westerners to judge. Had they shot down the missile over Japanese territory, it would have shown ability and power to defend Japan. Letting it fly by while people hunkered down in cellars showed the people of Hokkaido that they can not rely on missiles being shot down.

Or, as you suggest, it could be a strategic decision not to show the hand too soon, given that the missile would not cause any damage anyway.

I guess the interesting thing is whether the Japanese will do the same when the next missile flies over Tokyo.

K
---------------
A fool and his money are soon elected.

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