The public data for modern projectiles is generalized. The actual effectiveness is published, but in a classified joint service work.
As to armor penetration. For a modern HEAT projectile, penetration of armor several times the core diameter is common. At first glance, a 50-mm penetration capability for the M433 is not out of the question. Complicating the situation is the type of armor struck (Chobham armor is far more resistant to HEAT projectiles than basic RHA), and, of course, the strike angle. Modern tank HEAT projectiles are still effective across many strike angles, but I don't know if that is the case for something more basic like a 40-mm grenade.
From what I could tell from available information, HEAT (or DP) projectiles have something like 2/3 the fragmentation effectiveness of an HE projectile of the same diameter. The M433 is probably similar in this regard. It is possible the casualty radius is still five meters, but with less fragmentation and therefore less chance of causing a casualty within the five meter radius. Lots of variables in play.
With occasional, fatigued glances at life's rear-view mirror from the other side of time.