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brian grafton
Victoria
BC Canada
Posts: 3203
Brexit
Posted on: 1/15/2019 11:19:25 PM

I'm surprised to see no comment whatsoever about the Commons' overwhelming rejection of Ms May's Brexit. I'm pretty stupid when it comes to the impact, but it seems to me that this could be the first step in a total reverse of British politics over the past number of years.

Part of the impact will be faced tomorrow, with a debate on no-confidence based on Labour's decision. And part, of course, will depend on how fully Ms May's coalition support holds up.

At present — and this is just a comment offered in relative ignorance — we're looking at a nation both divided and without a comfortable means of walking away from past mistakes.

IMHO, David Cameron has a pretty big can to carry right now. I'm just waiting for some MHO members to offer some insight into what will happen the next 10 weeks or so.

Cheers
Brian G
----------------------------------
"We have met the enemy, and he is us." Walt Kelly. "The Best Things in Life Aren't Things" Bumper sticker.
scoucer
Berlin
 Germany
Posts: 2778
Re: Brexit
Posted on: 1/16/2019 8:43:59 AM


Quote:
I'm surprised to see no comment whatsoever about the Commons' overwhelming rejection of Ms May's Brexit. I'm pretty stupid when it comes to the impact, but it seems to me that this could be the first step in a total reverse of British politics over the past number of years.

Part of the impact will be faced tomorrow, with a debate on no-confidence based on Labour's decision. And part, of course, will depend on how fully Ms May's coalition support holds up.

At present — and this is just a comment offered in relative ignorance — we're looking at a nation both divided and without a comfortable means of walking away from past mistakes.

IMHO, David Cameron has a pretty big can to carry right now. I'm just waiting for some MHO members to offer some insight into what will happen the next 10 weeks or so.

Cheers
Brian G
--brian grafton


You´ll have to wait a long time Brian. We, the gouvernment,parliament, the House of Lords, party leaders,and the rest of Europe haven´t a clue either. I suspect nobody has since the day after the referendum.

I personally suspect Brexit is a delayed symptom of mad cow disease.

Trevor
----------------------------------
`Hey don´t the wars come easy and don´t the peace come hard`- Buffy Sainte-Marie Some swim with the stream. Some swim against the stream. Me - I´m stuck somewhere in the woods and can´t even find the stupid stream.
jahenders
Colorado Springs
CO USA
Posts: 628
Re: Brexit
Posted on: 1/16/2019 11:33:36 AM


Quote:

Quote:
I'm surprised to see no comment whatsoever about the Commons' overwhelming rejection of Ms May's Brexit. I'm pretty stupid when it comes to the impact, but it seems to me that this could be the first step in a total reverse of British politics over the past number of years.

Part of the impact will be faced tomorrow, with a debate on no-confidence based on Labour's decision. And part, of course, will depend on how fully Ms May's coalition support holds up.

At present — and this is just a comment offered in relative ignorance — we're looking at a nation both divided and without a comfortable means of walking away from past mistakes.

IMHO, David Cameron has a pretty big can to carry right now. I'm just waiting for some MHO members to offer some insight into what will happen the next 10 weeks or so.

Cheers
Brian G
--brian grafton


You´ll have to wait a long time Brian. We, the gouvernment,parliament, the House of Lords, party leaders,and the rest of Europe haven´t a clue either. I suspect nobody has since the day after the referendum.

I personally suspect Brexit is a delayed symptom of mad cow disease.

Trevor
--scoucer


Regardless of the cause or the wisdom of the decision, I would think the people (a majority of whom voted for Brexit) must be dismayed that their political leaders can't/won't implement what they (the people) directed.

Jim


----------------------------------
Phil andrade
London
 UK
Posts: 4650
Re: Brexit
Posted on: 1/16/2019 12:37:11 PM

When the news of the size of the government’s defeat was broadcast, I should think that several million British people yelled out the favoured Anglo Saxon expletive at the same time.

It came as a shock, let me tell you, irrespective of political stance.

What’s happening to us ?

The world over, we seem to be in turmoil.

I like to think that - with the foul exception of the murder of Jo Cox - the British people have retained a traditional civility throughout.

The pundits are confident that Theresa May will survive Corbyn’s motion of no confidence.

The pound rallied late yesterday . Who would have thought ?

One of the biggest bankrollers of Brexit is now betting that the thing will not happen.

Is it too much of a stretch to suggest that the EU might adopt reforms that will make it more compatible with the scenario that David Cameron asked for in 2015 ?

The Italian and Polish populists are determined to make trouble for what they see as the Paris Berlin axis.

Please venture your predictions.

Regards, Phil



----------------------------------
"Egad, sir, I do not know whether you will die on the gallows or of the pox!" "That will depend, my Lord, on whether I embrace your principles or your mistress." Earl of Sandwich and John Wilkes
George
Centre Hastings
ON Canada
Posts: 10971
Re: Brexit
Posted on: 1/16/2019 1:28:02 PM


Quote:
Regardless of the cause or the wisdom of the decision, I would think the people (a majority of whom voted for Brexit) must be dismayed that their political leaders can't/won't implement what they (the people) directed.


Indeed but I do not think that the British people fully understood the ramifications of a YES vote.

I am surprised that a decision of this magnitude was left to a simple majority.

England

Leave 53.4%
15,188,406 VOTES
Remain 46.6%
13,266,996 VOTES
Counting completeTurnout: 73.0%


Northern Ireland

Leave 44.2%
349,442 VOTES
Remain 55.8%
440,707 VOTES
Counting completeTurnout: 62.7%


Scotland

Leave 38.0%
1,018,322 VOTES
Remain 62.0%
1,661,191 VOTES
Counting completeTurnout: 67.2%


Wales

Leave 52.5%
854,572 VOTES
Remain 47.5%
772,347 VOTES

Counting completeTurnout: 71.7%


So this was not an overwhelming vote in favour of leaving the EU. And it seems that many Britons are now quite alarmed by the prospects of going alone when the EU has not come begging as some politicians have said that they would.


This is a conflicted nation and even more so as it becomes apparent that there will be economic repercussions from this decision.

I will be corrected but it seems to me that the UK is attempting to negotiate a deal with the EU that gives them access but without any of the other responsibilities like permitting free movement of EU workers.

Today, I listened to Mark Carney, the Governor of the Central Bank of England, who has predicted in the past that there will be economic upheaval as a result of this "Leave" vote. When it was pointed out to him that the world market had not crashed with the news that Parliament had rejected May's EU deal, he commented that he believes that businesses do not believe that there will be an option exercised to leave with no deal at all.

Meanwhile, and I believe that Kaii alluded to this with respect to his own place of work, businesses are relocating to the continent. As well, foreign workers are leaving as they do not know what their prospects will be in the UK. I heard an interview with a Canadian who has been working in the UK for years and currently is working in the Republic of Ireland. He has been busy obtaining British and Irish passports to add to his Canadian passport. Hedging his bets.

J.P. Morgan, the US banker has said that it can move its 4000 employees in the UK to the continent very quickly.

Lastly, I have noted a number of US based articles that seem to talk a lot about an "American friendly" Brexit. The US envoy to the UK has cautioned Britain that a trade deal with the US is unlikely if the terms negotiated by Ms. May were accepted in Parliament. And they were not.

I am not sure why the US envoy felt compelled to make the statement but I do know that the UK is busy seeking other markets and that includes a deal with Canada. Ironically, the UK used to be our most important trading partner up until the early part of the 20th century.


----------------------------------
Riaindevoy
Geelong
 Australia
Posts: 1776
Re: Brexit
Posted on: 1/16/2019 2:06:03 PM

As I understand it Brexit is happening, the date has been set and the clock is running.

The vote was on a deal with the EU that was bad, all the drawbacks with none of the power. Without this deal Brexit will occur and Britains trade relationship will be run according to WTO rules, which is how Australia and other countries regulate their trade with the EU.

Personally I think in the long term Brexit without an EU deal will be a good thing. Plenty of countries will want FTAs with Britain and negotiating them will give both Britain and the EU a sense of perspective that they both lack at the moment.

As for lack of comment, I think Brexit is like Trump: a cause for argument so people keep quiet.
----------------------------------
“We are pretending to know about things we don’t know and pretending to not know things we’ve known til yesterday.” Douglas Murray.
scoucer
Berlin
 Germany
Posts: 2778
Re: Brexit
Posted on: 1/16/2019 8:23:49 PM


Quote:

Is it too much of a stretch to suggest that the EU might adopt reforms that will make it more compatible with the scenario that David Cameron asked for in 2015 ?

--Phil andrade


No chance. Rather more and more are becoming convinced that the ever-whining Brits who block everything and seem to demand that everybody change to suit them should finally go. The delay of the vote before Christmas was sort of the last straw. Here in Germany, the assumption is that the UK will crash out on the 29th March. Unless the UK asks for an extension of Article 50 for a second Referendum. The talk is that is that, out of humanitarian reasons, regulations shouldn´t be applied for the first couple of months.

Trevor


----------------------------------
`Hey don´t the wars come easy and don´t the peace come hard`- Buffy Sainte-Marie Some swim with the stream. Some swim against the stream. Me - I´m stuck somewhere in the woods and can´t even find the stupid stream.
Phil andrade
London
 UK
Posts: 4650
Re: Brexit
Posted on: 1/17/2019 3:39:44 AM


Quote:

Quote:

Is it too much of a stretch to suggest that the EU might adopt reforms that will make it more compatible with the scenario that David Cameron asked for in 2015 ?

--Phil andrade


No chance. Rather more and more are becoming convinced that the ever-whining Brits who block everything and seem to demand that everybody change to suit them should finally go. The delay of the vote before Christmas was sort of the last straw. Here in Germany, the assumption is that the UK will crash out on the 29th March. Unless the UK asks for an extension of Article 50 for a second Referendum. The talk is that is that, out of humanitarian reasons, regulations shouldn´t be applied for the first couple of months.

Trevor



--scoucer


Trevor,

Thank Goodness you’ve not used that condescending and manipulative phrase “ people’s vote “, and called it what it is - a second referendum.

Regards, Phil
----------------------------------
"Egad, sir, I do not know whether you will die on the gallows or of the pox!" "That will depend, my Lord, on whether I embrace your principles or your mistress." Earl of Sandwich and John Wilkes
Lightning
Glasgow
 UK
Posts: 597
Re: Brexit
Posted on: 1/17/2019 7:54:11 AM

I think this all stems back to the original vote and how ambiguous the question was (in/out) and the fact a simple majority would swing it. Nobody could define what Brexit would mean. Was it a Norway-style EFTA arrangement? Was it WTO terms? Was it something completely new? Both sides talked utter nonsense and now we have a Parliament that absolutely will not be able to find a way through this.

The only way to break the impasses is to hold another referendum, with prescribed outcomes on it, including no Brexit at all. Let the people decide, once and for all, what the path forward should be. A 'No-Deal' Brexit will break up the UK, so that must be avoided at all costs (but only if you actually want to preserve the UK, of course).

Cheers,

Colin
----------------------------------
"There is no course open to us but to fight it out. Every position must be held to the last man: there must be no retirement. With our backs to the wall and believing in the justice of our cause, each one of us must fight to the end."
Riaindevoy
Geelong
 Australia
Posts: 1776
Re: Brexit
Posted on: 1/17/2019 2:01:11 PM

But Britain can't do that because the outcome is dependent on what the EU decides on. No point in asking for a Norwegian type relationship if the EU refuses to agree to it, then Britain has nowhere to go.
----------------------------------
“We are pretending to know about things we don’t know and pretending to not know things we’ve known til yesterday.” Douglas Murray.
kaii
Oslo
 Norway
Posts: 2803
Re: Brexit
Posted on: 1/17/2019 2:49:28 PM

The UK already has a "Norway style" relationship which will not actually change on March 29th when they leave the EU.

Article 127 of the EEA agreement, signed by the UK as a separate Contracting Party, states


Quote:
Each Contracting Party may withdraw from this Agreement provided it gives at least twelve months' notice in writing to the
other Contracting Parties.
Immediately after the notification of the intended withdrawal, the other Contracting Parties shall convene a diplomatic
conference in order to envisage the necessary modifications to bring to the Agreement.


Invoking Article 50 in the TFEU does not actually constitute giving 12 months notice of leaving the EEA.

The UK has not given notice of their intention to leave the EEA, hence they will stay a member also after they leave the EU. There is no obligation to be a member of EFTA to stay a member of EEA built into the EEA agreement as it stands. There is Plan B right there.

I would be very surprised if we will not see a court case testing this very soon after March 29th.


I can also say that those that argue for a WTO solution are generally those that do not trade with the EU, and will not be affected much anyway. UK will survive a no deal Brexit, and over time things will settle down,but the biggest problem is going to come when all those that voted for Brexit realise that their lives are not getting better because their problems had little to do with the EU and everything to do with UK politics.

As George mentioned, being a company that relies heavily on selling services in the EU, we could not risk being stuck on the island with BoJo as PM, so moved most of our HQ functions to Estonia.I can probably list 50 companies that we trade with or have some connection with, that have also left the UK,partly or completely.

One can gloss over that by hoping new companies based on trade with countries on the other side of the earth will compensate, but that is a longer term prospect,In the short term the question is whether those millions of disappointed brexiters that do not wake up in a Downton Abbey mansion on March 30th will riot.

Time will tell, frankly I am happy I am out of it,although I will be perfectly happy to accept GBP payments for services also in the future.

K

Edit- I am trying hard to think whether I have ever seen an equally incompetent management by a government. The closest I get is when I worked with UEFA, preparing for Euro 2012 in Poland and Ukraine. In Ukraine, we discovered a hole of about a billion dollars in the official budget. With time getting very critical before building of airports, stadia etc had to be finished, the Ukrainian parliament decided to throw a massive fist fight, followed by a four week break for holiday. May's defeat was worse.
----------------------------------
I’m not worried about the Third World War. That’s the Third World’s problem.
scoucer
Berlin
 Germany
Posts: 2778
Re: Brexit
Posted on: 1/17/2019 8:06:52 PM

"BREXIT EXPLAINED.......

David Cameron made a promise he didn't think he'd have to keep to have a referendum he didn't think he would lose. Boris Johnson decided to back the side he didn't believe in because he didn't think it would win. Then Gove, who said he wouldn't run, did, and Boris who said he would run, said he wouldn't, and Theresa May who didn't vote for Brexit got the job of making it happen. She called the election she said she wouldn't and lost the majority David Cameron hadn't expected to win in the first place. She triggered Article 50 when we didn't need to and said we would talk about trade at the same time as the divorce deal and the EU said they wouldn't so we didn't. People thought she wouldn't get the divorce settled but she did, but only by agreeing to separate arrangements for Northern Ireland when she had promised the DUP she wouldn't. Then the Cabinet agreed a deal but they hadn't, and David Davis who was Brexit Secretary but wasn't said it wasn't what people had voted for and he couldn't support what he had just supported and left. Boris Johnson who hadn't left then wished that he had and did, but it was a bit late for that. Dominic Raab become the new Brexit secretary. People thought Theresa May wouldn't get a withdrawal agreement negotiated, but once she had they wished that she hadn't, because hardly anybody liked it whether they wanted to leave or not. Jacob Rees-Mogg kept threatening a vote of no confidence in her but not enough people were confident enough people would not have confidence in her to confidently call a no confidence vote. Dominic Raab said he hadn't really been Brexit Secretary either and resigned, and somebody else took the job but it probably isn't worth remembering who they are as they're not really doing the job either as Olly Robbins is. Then she said she would call a vote and didn't, that she wouldn't release some legal advice but had to, that she would get some concessions but didn't, and got cross that Juncker was calling her nebulous when he wasn't but probably should have been. At some point Jacob Rees Mogg and others called a vote of no confidence in her, which she won by promising to leave, so she can stay. But they said she had really lost it and should go, at the same time as saying that people who voted Leave knew what they were voting for which they couldn't possibly have because we still don't know now, and that we should leave the vote to Leave vote alone but have no confidence in the no confidence vote which won by more. The government also argued in court against us being able to say we didn't want to leave after all but it turned out we could. She named a date for the vote on her agreement which nobody expected to pass, while pretending that no deal which nobody wants is still possible (even though we know we can just say we are not leaving), and that we can't have a second referendum because having a democratic vote is undemocratic. And of course as expected she loses. Some people are talking about a managed no-deal which is not a deal but is not no-deal either.

Thank goodness for strong and stable government."

Any questions `?

Trevor
----------------------------------
`Hey don´t the wars come easy and don´t the peace come hard`- Buffy Sainte-Marie Some swim with the stream. Some swim against the stream. Me - I´m stuck somewhere in the woods and can´t even find the stupid stream.
Phil andrade
London
 UK
Posts: 4650
Re: Brexit
Posted on: 1/18/2019 4:29:05 AM

“Any questions ? “

We haven’t covered ourselves in glory, then ?😢

Editing : Trevor, have you seen the letter to The Times written by Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, and endorsed by a large number of high profile German political, cultural and financial leaders ? Is it a heartfelt expression of affection and does it reflect the views of the majority of German people ?

Regards, Phil
----------------------------------
"Egad, sir, I do not know whether you will die on the gallows or of the pox!" "That will depend, my Lord, on whether I embrace your principles or your mistress." Earl of Sandwich and John Wilkes
morris crumley
Dunwoody
GA USA
Posts: 2810
Re: Brexit
Posted on: 1/18/2019 8:22:36 AM


Quote:
"BREXIT EXPLAINED.......

David Cameron made a promise he didn't think he'd have to keep to have a referendum he didn't think he would lose. Boris Johnson decided to back the side he didn't believe in because he didn't think it would win. Then Gove, who said he wouldn't run, did, and Boris who said he would run, said he wouldn't, and Theresa May who didn't vote for Brexit got the job of making it happen. She called the election she said she wouldn't and lost the majority David Cameron hadn't expected to win in the first place. She triggered Article 50 when we didn't need to and said we would talk about trade at the same time as the divorce deal and the EU said they wouldn't so we didn't. People thought she wouldn't get the divorce settled but she did, but only by agreeing to separate arrangements for Northern Ireland when she had promised the DUP she wouldn't. Then the Cabinet agreed a deal but they hadn't, and David Davis who was Brexit Secretary but wasn't said it wasn't what people had voted for and he couldn't support what he had just supported and left. Boris Johnson who hadn't left then wished that he had and did, but it was a bit late for that. Dominic Raab become the new Brexit secretary. People thought Theresa May wouldn't get a withdrawal agreement negotiated, but once she had they wished that she hadn't, because hardly anybody liked it whether they wanted to leave or not. Jacob Rees-Mogg kept threatening a vote of no confidence in her but not enough people were confident enough people would not have confidence in her to confidently call a no confidence vote. Dominic Raab said he hadn't really been Brexit Secretary either and resigned, and somebody else took the job but it probably isn't worth remembering who they are as they're not really doing the job either as Olly Robbins is. Then she said she would call a vote and didn't, that she wouldn't release some legal advice but had to, that she would get some concessions but didn't, and got cross that Juncker was calling her nebulous when he wasn't but probably should have been. At some point Jacob Rees Mogg and others called a vote of no confidence in her, which she won by promising to leave, so she can stay. But they said she had really lost it and should go, at the same time as saying that people who voted Leave knew what they were voting for which they couldn't possibly have because we still don't know now, and that we should leave the vote to Leave vote alone but have no confidence in the no confidence vote which won by more. The government also argued in court against us being able to say we didn't want to leave after all but it turned out we could. She named a date for the vote on her agreement which nobody expected to pass, while pretending that no deal which nobody wants is still possible (even though we know we can just say we are not leaving), and that we can't have a second referendum because having a democratic vote is undemocratic. And of course as expected she loses. Some people are talking about a managed no-deal which is not a deal but is not no-deal either.

Thank goodness for strong and stable government."




Any questions `?

Trevor
--scoucer


Is this not what is wrong with western democracies today. "Leaders" who are to act with the consent of the people to carry out the wishes and listen to the concerns of the people....assuming they know it all better than the people....finding out that they do not have the consent or approbation of the people...treating the people like chattel...and telling them they know best...when maybe they don`t...and acting accordingly.

Cameron thought that he knew ( as well as too many others) that the people would not vote to leave..so he sets up a sham vote. The people who wanted to stay must have had laundry day, or been drunk, or like the elites...they just assumed that "everybody likes the status quo" and so they didn`t bother to get off their lazy or arrogant butts and go vote.

One of the aspects of democratic elections is that they have consequences! And if one truly believes in democracy at all...then you don`t deny election results and start looking at ways around it when you loose! Or refuse to concede when defeated.

I know from the posts here, immediately after the election to Brexit, there were all kinds of speculations of how to get around it, nullify it, undo it. In my county, the last national election was treated that way. The last state election in Georgia ended up with the looser refusing to concede the election for Governor.

"Democracy doesn`t die in darkness"...as the New York Times "resistance slugs" say...democracy dies when votes are no longer respected by the people who claim to admire democracy.

Respect, Morris


----------------------------------
"You are a $70, red-wool, pure quill military genius, or the biggest damn fool in northern Mexico."
scoucer
Berlin
 Germany
Posts: 2778
Re: Brexit
Posted on: 1/18/2019 10:45:21 AM


Quote:

Editing : Trevor, have you seen the letter to The Times written by Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, and endorsed by a large number of high profile German political, cultural and financial leaders ? Is it a heartfelt expression of affection and does it reflect the views of the majority of German people ?

Regards, Phil --Phil andrade


Basically Phil - Yes.The majority of Germans view the Brits as suffering from some form of temporary insanity. A sort of post-imperial identity crisis. The general opinion being that the “island monkeys” have always been short of a few sandwiches for a picnic.
OTOH, and it might sound strange to British ears, there´s the tradition going back to Frederick the Great, that “perfidious Albion” can´t be trusted ( well they are Hanoverians).

Morris,

It is one point. But not the only one. I´d like to get back to you because it´s been part of a couple of things I´ve been thinking about with Brexit, France, the US, Italy etc.

Trevor

----------------------------------
`Hey don´t the wars come easy and don´t the peace come hard`- Buffy Sainte-Marie Some swim with the stream. Some swim against the stream. Me - I´m stuck somewhere in the woods and can´t even find the stupid stream.
Riaindevoy
Geelong
 Australia
Posts: 1776
Re: Brexit
Posted on: 1/18/2019 2:58:32 PM


Quote:
The UK already has a "Norway style" relationship which will not actually change on March 29th when they leave the EU.

Article 127 of the EEA agreement, signed by the UK as a separate Contracting Party, states


Quote:
Each Contracting Party may withdraw from this Agreement provided it gives at least twelve months' notice in writing to the
other Contracting Parties.
Immediately after the notification of the intended withdrawal, the other Contracting Parties shall convene a diplomatic
conference in order to envisage the necessary modifications to bring to the Agreement.


Invoking Article 50 in the TFEU does not actually constitute giving 12 months notice of leaving the EEA.

The UK has not given notice of their intention to leave the EEA, hence they will stay a member also after they leave the EU. There is no obligation to be a member of EFTA to stay a member of EEA built into the EEA agreement as it stands. There is Plan B right there.

I would be very surprised if we will not see a court case testing this very soon after March 29th.


I can also say that those that argue for a WTO solution are generally those that do not trade with the EU, and will not be affected much anyway. UK will survive a no deal Brexit, and over time things will settle down,but the biggest problem is going to come when all those that voted for Brexit realise that their lives are not getting better because their problems had little to do with the EU and everything to do with UK politics.

As George mentioned, being a company that relies heavily on selling services in the EU, we could not risk being stuck on the island with BoJo as PM, so moved most of our HQ functions to Estonia.I can probably list 50 companies that we trade with or have some connection with, that have also left the UK,partly or completely.

One can gloss over that by hoping new companies based on trade with countries on the other side of the earth will compensate, but that is a longer term prospect,In the short term the question is whether those millions of disappointed brexiters that do not wake up in a Downton Abbey mansion on March 30th will riot.

Time will tell, frankly I am happy I am out of it,although I will be perfectly happy to accept GBP payments for services also in the future.

K

Edit- I am trying hard to think whether I have ever seen an equally incompetent management by a government. The closest I get is when I worked with UEFA, preparing for Euro 2012 in Poland and Ukraine. In Ukraine, we discovered a hole of about a billion dollars in the official budget. With time getting very critical before building of airports, stadia etc had to be finished, the Ukrainian parliament decided to throw a massive fist fight, followed by a four week break for holiday. May's defeat was worse.
--kaii


Do you think that Britain's pollies relying on this tactic? If it works would it be seen as a success for Brexit?
----------------------------------
“We are pretending to know about things we don’t know and pretending to not know things we’ve known til yesterday.” Douglas Murray.
redcoat
Stockport
 UK
Posts: 345
Re: Brexit
Posted on: 1/18/2019 3:50:03 PM


Quote:

Quote:

Quote:
I'm surprised to see no comment whatsoever about the Commons' overwhelming rejection of Ms May's Brexit. I'm pretty stupid when it comes to the impact, but it seems to me that this could be the first step in a total reverse of British politics over the past number of years.

Part of the impact will be faced tomorrow, with a debate on no-confidence based on Labour's decision. And part, of course, will depend on how fully Ms May's coalition support holds up.

At present — and this is just a comment offered in relative ignorance — we're looking at a nation both divided and without a comfortable means of walking away from past mistakes.

IMHO, David Cameron has a pretty big can to carry right now. I'm just waiting for some MHO members to offer some insight into what will happen the next 10 weeks or so.

Cheers
Brian G
--brian grafton


You´ll have to wait a long time Brian. We, the gouvernment,parliament, the House of Lords, party leaders,and the rest of Europe haven´t a clue either. I suspect nobody has since the day after the referendum.

I personally suspect Brexit is a delayed symptom of mad cow disease.

Trevor
--scoucer


Regardless of the cause or the wisdom of the decision, I would think the people (a majority of whom voted for Brexit) must be dismayed that their political leaders can't/won't implement what they (the people) directed.

Jim



--jahenders
The major problem is a large majority of the MP's are trying to work out something they think is a really bad idea.
While a small majority of the voting population voted to leave, a large majority of MP's wanted to remain.






----------------------------------
Phil andrade
London
 UK
Posts: 4650
Re: Brexit
Posted on: 1/18/2019 4:35:27 PM

Fifty two percent of people who voted in the referendum cast their vote to leave .




Sixty seven per cent of MPs voted to remain.



What does this portend ?



Regards, Phil

----------------------------------
"Egad, sir, I do not know whether you will die on the gallows or of the pox!" "That will depend, my Lord, on whether I embrace your principles or your mistress." Earl of Sandwich and John Wilkes
kaii
Oslo
 Norway
Posts: 2803
Re: Brexit
Posted on: 1/19/2019 3:44:39 PM


Quote:

Quote:
The UK already has a "Norway style" relationship which will not actually change on March 29th when they leave the EU.

Article 127 of the EEA agreement, signed by the UK as a separate Contracting Party, states


Quote:
Each Contracting Party may withdraw from this Agreement provided it gives at least twelve months' notice in writing to the
other Contracting Parties.
Immediately after the notification of the intended withdrawal, the other Contracting Parties shall convene a diplomatic
conference in order to envisage the necessary modifications to bring to the Agreement.


Invoking Article 50 in the TFEU does not actually constitute giving 12 months notice of leaving the EEA.

The UK has not given notice of their intention to leave the EEA, hence they will stay a member also after they leave the EU. There is no obligation to be a member of EFTA to stay a member of EEA built into the EEA agreement as it stands. There is Plan B right there.

I would be very surprised if we will not see a court case testing this very soon after March 29th.


I can also say that those that argue for a WTO solution are generally those that do not trade with the EU, and will not be affected much anyway. UK will survive a no deal Brexit, and over time things will settle down,but the biggest problem is going to come when all those that voted for Brexit realise that their lives are not getting better because their problems had little to do with the EU and everything to do with UK politics.

As George mentioned, being a company that relies heavily on selling services in the EU, we could not risk being stuck on the island with BoJo as PM, so moved most of our HQ functions to Estonia.I can probably list 50 companies that we trade with or have some connection with, that have also left the UK,partly or completely.

One can gloss over that by hoping new companies based on trade with countries on the other side of the earth will compensate, but that is a longer term prospect,In the short term the question is whether those millions of disappointed brexiters that do not wake up in a Downton Abbey mansion on March 30th will riot.

Time will tell, frankly I am happy I am out of it,although I will be perfectly happy to accept GBP payments for services also in the future.

K

Edit- I am trying hard to think whether I have ever seen an equally incompetent management by a government. The closest I get is when I worked with UEFA, preparing for Euro 2012 in Poland and Ukraine. In Ukraine, we discovered a hole of about a billion dollars in the official budget. With time getting very critical before building of airports, stadia etc had to be finished, the Ukrainian parliament decided to throw a massive fist fight, followed by a four week break for holiday. May's defeat was worse.
--kaii


Do you think that Britain's pollies relying on this tactic? If it works would it be seen as a success for Brexit?
--Riaindevoy


Good question Riain, I am surprised it has not been more prominent in the debate now. It is possible that some boffins are keeping this as a Plan B. So far everyone just appears to have assumed that UK will leave the EEA when they leave the EU, but I know some of the lawyers in the EEA court have come to the conclusion that the UK must separately resign from the EEA agreement.

It could potentially be a legal mess coming up,on top of the other legal messes.

K
----------------------------------
I’m not worried about the Third World War. That’s the Third World’s problem.
Phil andrade
London
 UK
Posts: 4650
Re: Brexit
Posted on: 1/19/2019 6:21:48 PM

David Owen has advocated UK membership of the EEA as the means of transition during the period after the implementation of Article 50.

Lord Owen changed his mind about Europe after the introduction of the Euro.

A socialist , he had been a fervent supporter of British membership of the EC in the 1970s, but went through a Damascene moment when he witnessed Tony Blair attempting to sign the UK up to the Euro in 1999.

He has since been campaigning for Brexit, but is exasperated by failure of the the government to appreciate the ramifications of Britain’s membership of the EEA.

Regards, Phil
----------------------------------
"Egad, sir, I do not know whether you will die on the gallows or of the pox!" "That will depend, my Lord, on whether I embrace your principles or your mistress." Earl of Sandwich and John Wilkes
scoucer
Berlin
 Germany
Posts: 2778
Re: Brexit
Posted on: 1/29/2019 9:11:51 PM


Quote:
"BREXIT EXPLAINED.......

David Cameron made a promise he didn't think he'd have to keep to have a referendum he didn't think he would lose. Boris Johnson decided to back the side he didn't believe in because he didn't think it would win. Then Gove, who said he wouldn't run, did, and Boris who said he would run, said he wouldn't, and Theresa May who didn't vote for Brexit got the job of making it happen. She called the election she said she wouldn't and lost the majority David Cameron hadn't expected to win in the first place. She triggered Article 50 when we didn't need to and said we would talk about trade at the same time as the divorce deal and the EU said they wouldn't so we didn't. People thought she wouldn't get the divorce settled but she did, but only by agreeing to separate arrangements for Northern Ireland when she had promised the DUP she wouldn't. Then the Cabinet agreed a deal but they hadn't, and David Davis who was Brexit Secretary but wasn't said it wasn't what people had voted for and he couldn't support what he had just supported and left. Boris Johnson who hadn't left then wished that he had and did, but it was a bit late for that. Dominic Raab become the new Brexit secretary. People thought Theresa May wouldn't get a withdrawal agreement negotiated, but once she had they wished that she hadn't, because hardly anybody liked it whether they wanted to leave or not. Jacob Rees-Mogg kept threatening a vote of no confidence in her but not enough people were confident enough people would not have confidence in her to confidently call a no confidence vote. Dominic Raab said he hadn't really been Brexit Secretary either and resigned, and somebody else took the job but it probably isn't worth remembering who they are as they're not really doing the job either as Olly Robbins is. Then she said she would call a vote and didn't, that she wouldn't release some legal advice but had to, that she would get some concessions but didn't, and got cross that Juncker was calling her nebulous when he wasn't but probably should have been. At some point Jacob Rees Mogg and others called a vote of no confidence in her, which she won by promising to leave, so she can stay. But they said she had really lost it and should go, at the same time as saying that people who voted Leave knew what they were voting for which they couldn't possibly have because we still don't know now, and that we should leave the vote to Leave vote alone but have no confidence in the no confidence vote which won by more. The government also argued in court against us being able to say we didn't want to leave after all but it turned out we could. She named a date for the vote on her agreement which nobody expected to pass, while pretending that no deal which nobody wants is still possible (even though we know we can just say we are not leaving), and that we can't have a second referendum because having a democratic vote is undemocratic. And of course as expected she loses. Some people are talking about a managed no-deal which is not a deal but is not no-deal either.

Thank goodness for strong and stable government."

Any questions `?

Trevor
--scoucer


Further explanation for those who haven´t grasped it yet.

People said our parliament wasn't sovereign, whilst ignoring how our parliament was sovereign and what our parliament wanted, and then holding a vote with contempt to parliament against what parliament wanted, to defend their sovereign parliament. Then a parliament that was already sovereign, decided to ignore its sovereignty and obey a majority of people who believed it wasn't sovereign and should be sovereign, and etched this into their party manifestos. Meanwhile the people wanting their parliament to be sovereign, called members of the judiciary the "enemies of the people" because they ruled parliament had a sovereign right to a final say on any Brexit deal, but it wasn't "conveniently" sovereign. Then the elected PM, obsessed with enacting the will of the people who demanded their parliament was sovereign, chose not to involve parliament over 3 years of negotiations, and only now consults them when her gambling on their sovereign vote failed. Finally, the sovereign parliament proves so useless in exercising its sovereignty, it can only agree on advising against a no-deal Brexit and supporting magical "alternative arrangments" to the Irish hard border even though nobody knows what they are.

Everything a little bit clearer ?

Trevor
----------------------------------
`Hey don´t the wars come easy and don´t the peace come hard`- Buffy Sainte-Marie Some swim with the stream. Some swim against the stream. Me - I´m stuck somewhere in the woods and can´t even find the stupid stream.
Lightning
Glasgow
 UK
Posts: 597
Re: Brexit
Posted on: 1/30/2019 6:35:41 AM

There is one only way the EU will agree to a renegotiation of the 'backstop' on the Irish border. That is to try and guarantee that there will never be a hard border reinstated against the will of the people living there by offering a referendum to the people of Northern Ireland on political reunification with the rest of the island of Ireland once the transition arrangements end.

In any case, the UK government's behaviour of the past two and a half years has been absolutely appalling. It has tried to bypass Opposition parties, it has tried to bypass the House of Lords, it has tried to bypass MPs in their own party to achieve a Brexit that pleases nobody. To turn around now and demand that Parliament gets involved in negotiations that are completely doomed to fail is unbelievably arrogant. The Government should have formed a cross-party negotiating team from the very start.

Cheers,

Colin
----------------------------------
"There is no course open to us but to fight it out. Every position must be held to the last man: there must be no retirement. With our backs to the wall and believing in the justice of our cause, each one of us must fight to the end."
anemone
DONCASTER S. YORKS
 UK
Posts: 7899
Re: Brexit
Posted on: 1/30/2019 9:29:12 AM


Quote:
The Backstop is a position of last resort, to maintain an open border on the island of Ireland in the event that the UK leaves the EU without securing an all-encompassing deal.

At present, goods and services are traded between the two jurisdictions on the island of Ireland with few restrictions.

The UK and Ireland are currently part of the EU single market and customs union, so products do not need to be inspected for customs and standards.

But, after Brexit, all that could change - the two parts of Ireland could be in different customs and regulatory regimes, which could mean products being checked at the border.

The UK government does not want this to happen. The EU has also said it does not want any hardening of the border.

However, the UK's current red lines, which include leaving the customs union and the single market, make that very difficult.


Regards

Jim
----------------------------------
Pro Patria Saepe Pro Rege Semper
George
Centre Hastings
ON Canada
Posts: 10971
Re: Brexit
Posted on: 1/30/2019 11:02:22 AM


Quote:
The Government should have formed a cross-party negotiating team from the very start.


Hello Colin,

I found your last sentence interesting. Given the critical importance of creating an accord within the UK government, surely it would have been wise for that government to create a multi-lateral committee to negotiate with the EU and to come up with a BREXIT plan that all could live with.

So my simple question is why was it not done? Were there political reasons not to include the opposition in the negotiations?

Lastly, if PM May proposed the creation of a Brexit committee composed of members of the official opposition and the government from the House and representatives from the House of Lords, would she meet heavy opposition from her own party?

I noted today that PM May did engage in some sort of consultation with Her Majesty's Most Loyal Opposition on Jan. 18 and it was labelled as a "stunt". Labour leader Corbyn has said that he won't talk unless PM May confirms that a "no deal" Brexit is off the table.

This is a mess beyond my ken, I'm afraid.

Cheers,

George
----------------------------------
Riaindevoy
Geelong
 Australia
Posts: 1776
Re: Brexit
Posted on: 1/30/2019 2:05:39 PM

I see so many 'coulds' that its driving me insane. I just want to see a 'will' every now and then.

I'm also annoyed by the adjectives, the constant reference to the no deal 'mess' and the like. It is what it is, is there a need to pimp it up all the time?
----------------------------------
“We are pretending to know about things we don’t know and pretending to not know things we’ve known til yesterday.” Douglas Murray.
scoucer
Berlin
 Germany
Posts: 2778
Re: Brexit
Posted on: 1/30/2019 3:47:25 PM


Quote:
I see so many 'coulds' that its driving me insane. I just want to see a 'will' every now and then.

I'm also annoyed by the adjectives, the constant reference to the no deal 'mess' and the like. It is what it is, is there a need to pimp it up all the time?
--Riaindevoy


There are so many "coulds" because nobody has a clue what is really going to happen. It is an "absolute mess". Which is why I´m moving towards a no-deal exit so everybody can get a reality check. When there comes a "will" it is just dismissed as scaremongering or "project fear".

Trevor
----------------------------------
`Hey don´t the wars come easy and don´t the peace come hard`- Buffy Sainte-Marie Some swim with the stream. Some swim against the stream. Me - I´m stuck somewhere in the woods and can´t even find the stupid stream.
Riaindevoy
Geelong
 Australia
Posts: 1776
Re: Brexit
Posted on: 1/30/2019 6:23:24 PM

If nobody knows what will happen how can it be decided that its a mess? It 'could' be awesome!

I also want a no deal brexit for reality check reasons, although I think Britain will be fine more or less.
----------------------------------
“We are pretending to know about things we don’t know and pretending to not know things we’ve known til yesterday.” Douglas Murray.
scoucer
Berlin
 Germany
Posts: 2778
Re: Brexit
Posted on: 1/30/2019 7:06:23 PM


Quote:
If nobody knows what will happen how can it be decided that its a mess? It 'could' be awesome!

I also want a no deal brexit for reality check reasons, although I think Britain will be fine more or less.
--Riaindevoy


And Stockport County "could" beat Manchester City but I somehow don´t think so.

Trevor
----------------------------------
`Hey don´t the wars come easy and don´t the peace come hard`- Buffy Sainte-Marie Some swim with the stream. Some swim against the stream. Me - I´m stuck somewhere in the woods and can´t even find the stupid stream.
Riaindevoy
Geelong
 Australia
Posts: 1776
Re: Brexit
Posted on: 1/30/2019 8:59:05 PM


Quote:

Quote:
If nobody knows what will happen how can it be decided that its a mess? It 'could' be awesome!

I also want a no deal brexit for reality check reasons, although I think Britain will be fine more or less.
--Riaindevoy



And Stockport County "could" beat Manchester City but I somehow don´t think so.

Trevor
--scoucer


I don't know anything about that other than Manchester city owns Melbourne city.

I'm interested in the definition of mess, is it expectation management of 'first world problems'? I get the feeling that it is, that there will be winners as well as losers but nobody is talking about the winners.
----------------------------------
“We are pretending to know about things we don’t know and pretending to not know things we’ve known til yesterday.” Douglas Murray.
scoucer
Berlin
 Germany
Posts: 2778
Re: Brexit
Posted on: 2/4/2019 12:58:03 PM

One of those snippets found in the local berlin press.

You couldn´t make this up.

There is a petition in the Uk, that the Republic of Ireland should be offered membership of the UK and also leave the EU.This would solve the problem of the border with North Ireland.

Michael Collins, the Irish Ambassador to Germany, was asked at a garden party what he thought of this.

" I´m sorry that Ireland has distressed the UK for the last two years. Never mind there are only 598 years to go and we are quits." LOL

Trevor
----------------------------------
`Hey don´t the wars come easy and don´t the peace come hard`- Buffy Sainte-Marie Some swim with the stream. Some swim against the stream. Me - I´m stuck somewhere in the woods and can´t even find the stupid stream.
George
Centre Hastings
ON Canada
Posts: 10971
Re: Brexit
Posted on: 2/5/2019 7:26:09 AM


Quote:

Quote:

Quote:
If nobody knows what will happen how can it be decided that its a mess? It 'could' be awesome!

I also want a no deal brexit for reality check reasons, although I think Britain will be fine more or less.
--Riaindevoy



And Stockport County "could" beat Manchester City but I somehow don´t think so.

Trevor
--scoucer


I don't know anything about that other than Manchester city owns Melbourne city.

I'm interested in the definition of mess, is it expectation management of 'first world problems'? I get the feeling that it is, that there will be winners as well as losers but nobody is talking about the winners.

--Riaindevoy


But Riain, who would those winners be. I understand that this may be "1st world problems" but a no deal BREXIT would create great difficulty.

It means that there would be no transition period which would allow the Brits to get their house in order over a 21 month period.

Businesses and individuals would be on the hook for an immediate business response.

I found this summary of consequences to a no deal BREXIT

1. UK reverts to WHO rules (WHO is under stress because the US is undermining it with some policies)

2. EU external tariffs will be immediately applied to all goods. UK goods will cost more because there are no markets and EU goods will rise in price as well.

3. The EU will reject certain UK made products until they have passed EU regulatory bodies

4. Manufacturers will move to the continent to avoid delays in receiving parts needed for "just in time" delivery. A recent survey concludes that 1 in 3 businesses are considering this move and many have already done so. Only 7% of respondents (Institute of Directors) said that they would move to an EU27 country, 100%. I guess that that means that they will leave a shell operation in the UK, just in case things turn around.

5. The fate of 1.3 million UK citizens working in EU countries and the fate of 3.7 million Europeans working in UK is uncertain.

6. Professionals working in the EU or in the UK may have to undergo recertification.

7. The UK will have to rework many of its regulatory laws

8. UK will not have to adhere to the EU Court of Justice but will still be bound to the European Court of Human Rights which is not an EU body. I don't know how this will impact life in the UK.

9. The UK will no longer have to pay 13 billion pounds to the EU budget but the EU subsidy system for certain industries like agriculture will die as well.

10. And the Irish Border question will not have been resolved. Will there be tension at the EU border with Northern Ireland? Will unwelcome customs kiosks appear?

11. Immediate shortages of fresh produce will occur. The UK is already making plans to deal with this including advising schools to be "flexible" on the rules that require provision of fresh produce in school food services.
One pro-BREXIT wag commented that the situation vis a vis food will be no worse than war time rationing and temporary.

12. Apparently there will be a shortage of essential goods and retailers are already stockpiling these items, as are some individuals.

13. Health Secretary Matt Hancock has warned medical drug companies to expect six months of “significantly reduced access” to the main trade routes between Britain and Continental Europe if there is a no-deal Brexit.

One report has said that parts of the UK could run out of food and medicine quite quickly.

14. Kent County published an assessment of what they expect will happen to municipal services in the event of a hard BREXIT.
They suggest that municipal services will be either cut or slow to respond. This could include the collection of dead bodies, trash removal.
Kent County claims that there will be immediate gridlock on the roads as thousands of lorries clog the roads, waiting to cross to the continent.

[Read More]

If it is fear mongering then why would the authorities have plans to deal with the traffic woes. They are anticipating problems.

15. Flights to the continent would stop apparently because a bilateral agreement on flights between the UK and the EU would have to be concluded.


You mentioned that some people see a hard BREXIT as an opportunity. Some hardliners are saying that a hard BREXIT would mean that the British pound would be devalued and that that would make British goods more marketable.

These same hard liners claim that all the stuff that I posted above is just fear mongering on the part of those who wish to stay in the EU.


So I wonder which scenario will play out in the event of a no deal BREXIT.

This article was written in the Independent last summer. It paints a picture of a disaster. How much truth is in it, I do not know.

And I do not know whether the Independent can be considered a reliable source of information. But here it is.

Title: What would Day 1 of a no-deal BREXIT look like?

[Read More]

Cheers,

George
----------------------------------
scoucer
Berlin
 Germany
Posts: 2778
Re: Brexit
Posted on: 2/5/2019 9:29:23 AM

The Independent is considered a liberal, commie, remoaner, snowflake newspaper. So maybe a bit closer to reality as the :


Quote:
" We won two world wars so a great chance to kick out all the scrounging, evil foriegners who can´t speak english proper,stealing all our jobs and eating foriegn muck,and taking up our natural position as leaders of the Commonwealth and best friends of the Yanks. Don´t want the Krauts and Frogs tellin us what to do. Baht sovurenty,an takin are cuntry back innit.
Murdoch press.

Trevor


----------------------------------
`Hey don´t the wars come easy and don´t the peace come hard`- Buffy Sainte-Marie Some swim with the stream. Some swim against the stream. Me - I´m stuck somewhere in the woods and can´t even find the stupid stream.
phil andrade
London
 UK
Posts: 4650
Re: Brexit
Posted on: 2/5/2019 10:20:09 AM

Trevor,

You liken Brexit to the Charge of the Light Brigade at Balaclava.

Theresa May insists on her “ red lines “

There was a red line at Balaclava, too , but it was a thin one 😀

Regards, Phil
----------------------------------
"Egad, sir, I do not know whether you will die on the gallows or of the pox!" "That will depend, my Lord, on whether I embrace your principles or your mistress." Earl of Sandwich and John Wilkes
Riaindevoy
Geelong
 Australia
Posts: 1776
Re: Brexit
Posted on: 2/6/2019 2:29:29 AM

But Riain, who would those winners be. I understand that this may be "1st world problems" but a no deal BREXIT would create great difficulty.

It means that there would be no transition period which would allow the Brits to get their house in order over a 21 month period.

Businesses and individuals would be on the hook for an immediate business response.

I found this summary of consequences to a no deal BREXIT

1. UK reverts to WHO rules (WHO is under stress because the US is undermining it with some policies)

2. EU external tariffs will be immediately applied to all goods. UK goods will cost more because there are no markets and EU goods will rise in price as well.

3. The EU will reject certain UK made products until they have passed EU regulatory bodies

4. Manufacturers will move to the continent to avoid delays in receiving parts needed for "just in time" delivery. A recent survey concludes that 1 in 3 businesses are considering this move and many have already done so. Only 7% of respondents (Institute of Directors) said that they would move to an EU27 country, 100%. I guess that that means that they will leave a shell operation in the UK, just in case things turn around.

5. The fate of 1.3 million UK citizens working in EU countries and the fate of 3.7 million Europeans working in UK is uncertain.

6. Professionals working in the EU or in the UK may have to undergo recertification.

7. The UK will have to rework many of its regulatory laws

8. UK will not have to adhere to the EU Court of Justice but will still be bound to the European Court of Human Rights which is not an EU body. I don't know how this will impact life in the UK.

9. The UK will no longer have to pay 13 billion pounds to the EU budget but the EU subsidy system for certain industries like agriculture will die as well.

10. And the Irish Border question will not have been resolved. Will there be tension at the EU border with Northern Ireland? Will unwelcome customs kiosks appear?

11. Immediate shortages of fresh produce will occur. The UK is already making plans to deal with this including advising schools to be "flexible" on the rules that require provision of fresh produce in school food services.
One pro-BREXIT wag commented that the situation vis a vis food will be no worse than war time rationing and temporary.

12. Apparently there will be a shortage of essential goods and retailers are already stockpiling these items, as are some individuals.

13. Health Secretary Matt Hancock has warned medical drug companies to expect six months of “significantly reduced access” to the main trade routes between Britain and Continental Europe if there is a no-deal Brexit.

One report has said that parts of the UK could run out of food and medicine quite quickly.

14. Kent County published an assessment of what they expect will happen to municipal services in the event of a hard BREXIT.
They suggest that municipal services will be either cut or slow to respond. This could include the collection of dead bodies, trash removal.
Kent County claims that there will be immediate gridlock on the roads as thousands of lorries clog the roads, waiting to cross to the continent.

[Read More]

If it is fear mongering then why would the authorities have plans to deal with the traffic woes. They are anticipating problems.

15. Flights to the continent would stop apparently because a bilateral agreement on flights between the UK and the EU would have to be concluded.


You mentioned that some people see a hard BREXIT as an opportunity. Some hardliners are saying that a hard BREXIT would mean that the British pound would be devalued and that that would make British goods more marketable.

These same hard liners claim that all the stuff that I posted above is just fear mongering on the part of those who wish to stay in the EU.


So I wonder which scenario will play out in the event of a no deal BREXIT.

This article was written in the Independent last summer. It paints a picture of a disaster. How much truth is in it, I do not know.

And I do not know whether the Independent can be considered a reliable source of information. But here it is.

Title: What would Day 1 of a no-deal BREXIT look like?
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

George, in general terms all of those positives came with associated political/social/cultural costs that were too costly for the majority of the British population, as the referendum showed.

One group of winners will be those who can export to Britain under WHO rules at lower cost than the EU for the goods that will increase in price and become uncompetitive.

Australia and New Zealand have already signed agreements over regulatory recognition with the UK, the EU will take a hit with a go slow on that front.

3, 4 & 5 have 'considering', 'may' and 'uncertain' in them and 2/3 of manufacturers aren't even considering a move. That's fear mongering pure and simple.

The regulatory laws could be dealt with initially in a blanket Act or amendment or even a directive to enforcement bodies.

Not knowing the impact as a reason to not do it is fear mongering, it might turn out awesome!

13 billion pounds vs an agricultural sector that will no longer have to compete with a heavily protected EU sector in a domestic market sounds like a possible win.

Dunno about the Irish border, might be actually painful that one.

The EU isnt the only place on earth you can get fresh produce and quality compliant medication under WTO rules, those who provide fresh produce and medication in the first days will make a fortune.

Dunno about Kent, how bad are the lines for things now? I suspect municipal services will prioritise and extra traffic measures introduced during the initial confusion.

Airlines and passengers will vote politicians out who delay on air agreements, that will be sorted quickly and travel patterns will change.

Hows that? Fear of the unknown is a big factor in both expectation management and the Remain argument. That's not to say that a no Deal Brexit won't cost money and time and other different ways, but its by no means a zero sum game.
----------------------------------
“We are pretending to know about things we don’t know and pretending to not know things we’ve known til yesterday.” Douglas Murray.
Phil Andrade
London
 UK
Posts: 4650
Re: Brexit
Posted on: 2/7/2019 12:51:55 AM

Yesterday Donald Tusk had a Liam Neeson moment.


Regards , Phil
----------------------------------
"Egad, sir, I do not know whether you will die on the gallows or of the pox!" "That will depend, my Lord, on whether I embrace your principles or your mistress." Earl of Sandwich and John Wilkes
George
Centre Hastings
ON Canada
Posts: 10971
Re: Brexit
Posted on: 2/7/2019 7:19:06 AM

Now Phil, Tusk's publicist did qualify the comment.

He only meant that the Brexiteers in government would go to a "special place in hell", AFTER THEY ARE DEAD. Just not now.

That should make you feel better.

I did listen to some clips and he did express a view that he and the EU wish that the decision could be reversed. OK then.

But then he lost it. Frustration?

Cheers,

George
----------------------------------
scoucer
Berlin
 Germany
Posts: 2778
Re: Brexit
Posted on: 2/7/2019 8:43:45 AM

I find it laughable. Compared to the insults and vitriol hurled at EU and particularly german politicians by Brexit politicians, now the Brexiteers are getting their knickers in a twist at a comment expressing the feelings of one hell of a lot of Europeans.Patience is wearing thin.

The phrase " Doing a Brit" has passed into European slang meaning saying goodbye and then staying and annoying the rest of the guests.

Trevor
----------------------------------
`Hey don´t the wars come easy and don´t the peace come hard`- Buffy Sainte-Marie Some swim with the stream. Some swim against the stream. Me - I´m stuck somewhere in the woods and can´t even find the stupid stream.
Phil Andrade
London
 UK
Posts: 4650
Re: Brexit
Posted on: 2/8/2019 2:59:12 AM

Might it be that the Franco - Italian shenanigans will prove a lot more toxic than the posturing of the irritating Brexiteers ?

Regards, Phil
----------------------------------
"Egad, sir, I do not know whether you will die on the gallows or of the pox!" "That will depend, my Lord, on whether I embrace your principles or your mistress." Earl of Sandwich and John Wilkes
scoucer
Berlin
 Germany
Posts: 2778
Re: Brexit
Posted on: 2/10/2019 2:26:39 PM


Quote:
Might it be that the Franco - Italian shenanigans will prove a lot more toxic than the posturing of the irritating Brexiteers ?

Regards, Phil
--Phil Andrade


No, just bluster and posturing for home consumption.

If memory serves me right, by Dante´s Inferno it is the Eighth Circle, Bolgia 5,8,9 and 10.

Trevor
----------------------------------
`Hey don´t the wars come easy and don´t the peace come hard`- Buffy Sainte-Marie Some swim with the stream. Some swim against the stream. Me - I´m stuck somewhere in the woods and can´t even find the stupid stream.
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