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Author
Message
Riaindevoy
Geelong
 Australia
Posts: 1776
Re: Brexit
Posted on: 2/15/2019 2:42:58 PM

Theresa May is going to scrape the mould off her jam after a no EU deal Brexit!

Seriously??!! Is the EU the only place on earth food is made? Is the EU the only place on earth Britain trades with?

If there aren't opportunistic business-people out there who have identified what is possible under WTO rules, what Britain will likely need first, where they can get those things at competitive prices and are readying themselves to corner the new market and make huge profits within days I'd be amazed!
----------------------------------
“We are pretending to know about things we don’t know and pretending to not know things we’ve known til yesterday.” Douglas Murray.
scoucer
Berlin
 Germany
Posts: 2778
Re: Brexit
Posted on: 2/15/2019 3:07:20 PM


Quote:
Theresa May is going to scrape the mould off her jam after a no EU deal Brexit!

Seriously??!! Is the EU the only place on earth food is made? Is the EU the only place on earth Britain trades with?

If there aren't opportunistic business-people out there who have identified what is possible under WTO rules, what Britain will likely need first, where they can get those things at competitive prices and are readying themselves to corner the new market and make huge profits within days I'd be amazed!
--Riaindevoy


Riain, you will be amazed.

Trevor
----------------------------------
`Hey don´t the wars come easy and don´t the peace come hard`- Buffy Sainte-Marie Some swim with the stream. Some swim against the stream. Me - I´m stuck somewhere in the woods and can´t even find the stupid stream.
Phil andrade
London
 UK
Posts: 4650
Re: Brexit
Posted on: 2/15/2019 3:39:06 PM


Quote:

Quote:
Theresa May is going to scrape the mould off her jam after a no EU deal Brexit!

Seriously??!! Is the EU the only place on earth food is made? Is the EU the only place on earth Britain trades with?

If there aren't opportunistic business-people out there who have identified what is possible under WTO rules, what Britain will likely need first, where they can get those things at competitive prices and are readying themselves to corner the new market and make huge profits within days I'd be amazed!
--Riaindevoy


Riain, you will be amazed.

Trevor

--scoucer


Is this a pun on Theresa’s surname ?

The EU ombudsman report has made some interesting comments about the appointment of Martin Selmayr.

Something is rotten in the state of Denmark.

Regards, Phil
----------------------------------
"Egad, sir, I do not know whether you will die on the gallows or of the pox!" "That will depend, my Lord, on whether I embrace your principles or your mistress." Earl of Sandwich and John Wilkes
Riaindevoy
Geelong
 Australia
Posts: 1776
Re: Brexit
Posted on: 2/15/2019 7:17:38 PM


Quote:

Quote:
Theresa May is going to scrape the mould off her jam after a no EU deal Brexit!

Seriously??!! Is the EU the only place on earth food is made? Is the EU the only place on earth Britain trades with?

If there aren't opportunistic business-people out there who have identified what is possible under WTO rules, what Britain will likely need first, where they can get those things at competitive prices and are readying themselves to corner the new market and make huge profits within days I'd be amazed!
--Riaindevoy


Riain, you will be amazed.

Trevor

--scoucer


If drug smugglers can supply the market with all the gear it can use despite billions being spent to stop them then legitimate businesses can supply Britain with perfectly legal trade goods when the government is actually wanting them to do so.
----------------------------------
“We are pretending to know about things we don’t know and pretending to not know things we’ve known til yesterday.” Douglas Murray.
Riaindevoy
Geelong
 Australia
Posts: 1776
Re: Brexit
Posted on: 2/18/2019 6:06:33 PM

7 Labour MPs have quit the party over Brexit, Corbyns leadership, lurch to the far left and anti semitism.
----------------------------------
“We are pretending to know about things we don’t know and pretending to not know things we’ve known til yesterday.” Douglas Murray.
scoucer
Berlin
 Germany
Posts: 2778
Re: Brexit
Posted on: 2/18/2019 8:11:58 PM


Quote:
7 Labour MPs have quit the party over Brexit, Corbyns leadership, lurch to the far left and anti semitism.
--Riaindevoy


This whole opera started with a Tory shift to the right, to take votes from the UKIP . Riain, Phil has started a thread on this on LFF.

Trevor
----------------------------------
`Hey don´t the wars come easy and don´t the peace come hard`- Buffy Sainte-Marie Some swim with the stream. Some swim against the stream. Me - I´m stuck somewhere in the woods and can´t even find the stupid stream.
George
Centre Hastings
ON Canada
Posts: 10971
Re: Brexit
Posted on: 9/24/2019 7:39:28 AM

So the Supreme Court of the UK has just said that Johnson's prorogation of Parliament is illegal.

Quote:
Supreme Court President Brenda Hale said the suspension "was unlawful because it had the effect of frustrating or preventing the ability of Parliament to carry out its constitutional functions without reasonable justification."


Quote:
The unanimous Supreme Court ruling declared the order to suspend Parliament "void and of no effect."


What happens now? Must he recall Parliament?

According to the Supreme Court, his actions were illegal and therefore Parliament is actually still in session.

And it seems that the Speaker of the House, John Bercow (orrrder, orrrder, orrrrrrrder) has communicated with parliamentarians that the House will resume sitting.


The ruling, read by the Supreme Court judge is in the CBC link below:

[Read More]


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kaii
Oslo
 Norway
Posts: 2803
Re: Brexit
Posted on: 9/24/2019 11:47:41 AM

Parliament sits again on Wednesday. Boris could face jail time in the worst case, but that would probably be unlikely. We may well se a new PM in the next days though.

K
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I’m not worried about the Third World War. That’s the Third World’s problem.
kaii
Oslo
 Norway
Posts: 2803
Re: Brexit
Posted on: 9/24/2019 12:04:04 PM

Quote:

Seriously??!! Is the EU the only place on earth food is made? Is the EU the only place on earth Britain trades with?



No, but the WTO tariff quota system ensures there are only limited amounts of food or other goods that could be exported tariff free. For instance, only 22 tons of lamb meat from New Zealnad per year could be imported to the UK tariff free per year. The rest would face tariffs that will make it uncompetitive in the UK market, where it would still compete with EU produced meat which would reach the market fresh and not frozen for instance.

WTO is not free trade and there isn't a single country in the world that trades on WTO terms alone today, simply because they are not good enough. One of the main reasons for that, apart from the tariff system, is the lack of customs regulations. UK's exit from the cutsoms union will be far more serious than tariffs on goods and services.

But, you are right that goods and services will of course still be available in the UK, although at higher prices. Everybody is happy to sell to someone who can pay higher prices. German cars, French wine, Italian cheese will still be in the shops. As you say, trade is done by smart businesses that see opportunities, not governments with political considerations.

The import problems will be faced by the JIT producers that rely on JIT deliveries of components and ingredients, i.e. the pharma industry, the food industry, the car industry etc. These have already moved or will move most of their production to the EU,but the products they make will still be sold in the UK at the higher prices.

The key issue for the UK lies with exports, and especially service exports, the back bone of the UK economy. The UK produces very little that can not be replaved by another EU country so high tariffs on UK products into the EU will hurt the export industry badly. The export of services now balance out some of the severe deficit in goods trade, but they will be hard pressed to keep that up when service trade is hit by losses of certificates etc after brexit.

Sure they can sell more to the rest of the world, but the problem here is that most other countries that are keen to get a trade deal with the UK are loking to sell to the UK, not buy from them. Nobody is queuing up to buy a lot more from the UK and that is really the key issue they have now.

In general, those that say it will all be no problem are those that never trade with other countries. Those that do see that there are considerable issues ahead that the UK government has not addressed at all.
K
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I’m not worried about the Third World War. That’s the Third World’s problem.
Phil Andrade
London
 UK
Posts: 4650
Re: Brexit
Posted on: 9/24/2019 12:16:28 PM

Do you remember that song that was a mega hit all those decades ago ?

I fought the Law, and the Law won

That would be a good serenade for Boris as he enters Parliament tomorrow.

This is becoming surreal, and over here we’re reeling from it all.

Lest Corbyn becomes complacent , I want to comment on the conduct of the Labour Party conference yesterday, when a controversial vote was passed by show of hands, and the Chair was challenged and virtually bullied by Jennie Formby into withdrawing the initial pronouncement .....a proper card vote was denied. It resembled trade union meetings I attended in 1972.

If ever I saw a breathtaking breach of democratic practice, this was it.

The shenanigans in the Labour Party are so dire that I feel ashamed : the calibre of the opposition being an indicator of the state of this country.

We are entering a shit storm of biblical proportions.

Regards, Phil
----------------------------------
"Egad, sir, I do not know whether you will die on the gallows or of the pox!" "That will depend, my Lord, on whether I embrace your principles or your mistress." Earl of Sandwich and John Wilkes
George
Centre Hastings
ON Canada
Posts: 10971
Re: Brexit
Posted on: 9/24/2019 1:11:48 PM

Phil, I read something about Johnson, "misleading the Queen" when he asked for permission to prorogue Parliament.

Now I don't believe that she would deny his request for any reason, not in 2019, but is that talk about misleading just blue skying on the part of the news people?

Cheers,

George
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Phil Andrade
London
 UK
Posts: 4650
Re: Brexit
Posted on: 9/24/2019 4:34:07 PM

All very subjective, IMHO, George.

Johnson is duplicitous by nature : like many rogues, he can be effective and might surprise us by pulling something out of the hat.

He has an enormous popular following : if a General Election were called , I think he would blow Corbyn out of the water.....that’s why Labour fought shy of endorsing the summons to the poll.

I doubt that Her Majesty was mislead : she is the most experienced practitioner of statecraft on the planet, literally.

Even if BJ sought to mislead her, she would see through it.

Word is that the Attorney General , Geoffrey Cox, will be made the fall guy.

In the meantime, Labour wrestles with demons of its own.

It’s my opinion that, while the Tories have taken a frightful blow, the damage to Labour is even worse.

Nigel Farage wants to be King Maker, but he’s going to get his comeuppance , too.

Regards, Phil
----------------------------------
"Egad, sir, I do not know whether you will die on the gallows or of the pox!" "That will depend, my Lord, on whether I embrace your principles or your mistress." Earl of Sandwich and John Wilkes
Brian Grafton
Victoria
BC Canada
Posts: 3203
Re: Brexit
Posted on: 9/24/2019 7:13:54 PM

Interesting reads. I would have thought the Queen well within her constitutional rights to deny Mr Johnson his prorogation request, just as our Gov-Gen had the right to refuse Stephen Harper some years ago when he pulled the same stunt. That said, I don't know exactly what Mr Johnson said to HM. But Phil is right about the Queen's understanding. He probably has the brightest, least self-serving, most honourable advisors of any western power. They're probably also the wiliest when dealing with HM's duties and restrictions.

Phil, interesting to read your comments about the British Labour Party. I agree, and think that Mr Corbyn was a bad choice of leader made, in part at least, in response to the policies and shortcomings of Gordon Brown and Tony Blair.

I'd love to hear more about your opinions concerning Mr Farage. I've always felt he wants to be either more or less than king maker, so long as he shows up at least in the contrails of history, and is not exposed too fully before he falls.

My oh my, along with Ms Pelosi's announcement this afternoon, I am fast exhausting myself!

Cheers
Brian G
----------------------------------
"We have met the enemy, and he is us." Walt Kelly. "The Best Things in Life Aren't Things" Bumper sticker.
kaii
Oslo
 Norway
Posts: 2803
Re: Brexit
Posted on: 9/25/2019 12:54:25 AM

A good analysis Phil. BoJo, despite all his faults, is probably still the mot popular candidate and would win a general election. I doubt most brexiteers will care much for the finerdetails pf constitutional law, and will easily buy into the "courts are enemy of the people" rhetorics used by the government.

Interesting days ahead.
K
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I’m not worried about the Third World War. That’s the Third World’s problem.
Phil Andrade
London
 UK
Posts: 4650
Re: Brexit
Posted on: 9/25/2019 1:37:36 AM

It was blonde on blonde yesterday, wasn’t it ?

The Trump Johnson love in at the UN.

Johnson rather redolent of Britain’s Diana Dors in the shadow of Marilyn Monroe !

Both of them falling foul of their constitutional protocols and retaining an immense base of popular support : in both cases, claiming to champion the plebiscite against the elite....that despite the privileged background they both enjoy.

The thing that strikes me is how ubiquitous this political wobbling is : Salvini in Italy, Bibi in Israel....even the dictatorial hard men, Putin and Erdogan, are facing the music. As for China, the Hong Kong rioting is portentous . Iran faces a monstrous challenge....that poor young woman who underwent self immolation .

Is there orchestration here ? Or random stuff that reflects social media and demographic change ?

I would like to reflect more on Nigel Farage and respond to Brian.

Edit : Johnson might be about to attempt a Pickett’s Charge. The array of firepower against him is formidable, the ground he must cross a veritable killing field.....BUT....he’s not facing superb warriors like Hancock and his boys.

Regards, Phil

----------------------------------
"Egad, sir, I do not know whether you will die on the gallows or of the pox!" "That will depend, my Lord, on whether I embrace your principles or your mistress." Earl of Sandwich and John Wilkes
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