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17thfabn
Ohio OH USA
Posts: 135
Joined: 2008
If Israel felt they had to could they take out Iran's nuclear program?
12/24/2020 6:39:16 PM
For the sake of debate.

At some time in the near future if Israel's intelligence agencies determined that Iran was about to develop a nuclear weapon. Could the Israelis take out the nuclear program with little or no outside help?

Of course they crippled the Iraqi nuclear program in 1981.  Iran would be tougher for three reasons that come immediately to mind:

1.) Iraq was distracted by its war with Iran. Iran does not have this same distraction.

2.) Distance. Iran is much further away than Iraq.  Any path they take puts them over countries that would not be enthusiastic about the  Israeli Air Force flying over them.

3.) Area. Iran has about 4 times the area that Iraq does. This gives them much more area to hide and spread out their program.

I'm sure there are many more difficulties the Israelis would face in 2021 and beyond they didn't face 40 years ago.
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Withdrawal in disgust is not the same as apathy.
Wazza
Sydney  Australia
Posts: 613
Joined: 2005
If Israel felt they had to could they take out Iran's nuclear program?
12/24/2020 7:46:04 PM
I'm pretty confident with their excellent intelligence services they would have a pretty good idea on locations.
They certainly have the capacity to take out a facility or, surgically remove key scientists from the equation.
The big question is would they do it, knowing the Arab world would certainly retaliate.
Brian Grafton
Victoria BC Canada
Posts: 3614
Joined: 2004
If Israel felt they had to could they take out Iran's nuclear program?
12/24/2020 9:20:48 PM
17th, interesting question to raise on the eve of the purported birth of the Christ child, about an Israel without a government and with certain Christian sites under lockdown!

I like Wazza’s comment, and agree with his assessment: Quote:
I'm pretty confident with their excellent intelligence services they would have a pretty good idea on locations.
They certainly have the capacity to take out a facility or, surgically remove key scientists from the equation.
The big question is would they do it, knowing the Arab world would certainly retaliate.

That said, I would argue that in the broader sense no nation, not even the US, could take out Iran’s nuclear program without massive overkill. Facilities can be targeted, and probably destroyed, but the facilities are merely the physical plant based on (in this case) Iranian intellectual capability in the field.

So. Yes, I’m pretty certain a strike (whether Israeli, or in sync with other nations, which might be necessary) could take out whatever Iranian nuclear weapon facilities they identified. But I’m less certain they would identify all nuclear facilities accurately. And I don’t think, without massive support from the US (because I’m not convinced such an aggressive measure would find general European support for what could not be seen as anything but an act of war) that Israel would ever get a second chance. Iran is, of course, somewhat isolated in the Arab world, as an officially Shiite nation in a largely Sunni world. But I could see Islam uniting if any Israeli attack was not surgical. And that would not bode Israel any good.

Of course there was/is an international agreement which Iran was a party to suggesting they would not develop nuclear weapons, or even the isotopes (is that right?) of uranium necessary for weapons-grade. The current US administration has done its best to destroy that agreement, though the European contingent still support what te Trump administration has rejected. Personally? Stupid move on the part of the US.

My biggest fear is that political chaos in Israel (four federal elections in 2 years, and no suggestion of any change?) might lead to military actions for political rather than geopolitical reasons. And I will admit I don’t have one reason to trust Israeli intelligence more than I might trust Iran. I think they’re good, but I see them as flawed.

Okay, rant over
Cheers. And stay safe.

Brian G
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"We have met the enemy, and he is us." Walt Kelly. "The Best Things in Life Aren't Things" Bumper sticker.
17thfabn
Ohio OH USA
Posts: 135
Joined: 2008
If Israel felt they had to could they take out Iran's nuclear program?
12/24/2020 9:46:03 PM
Quote:


Iran is, of course, somewhat isolated in the Arab world, as an officially Shiite nation in a largely Sunni world. But I could see Islam uniting if any Israeli attack was not surgical. And that would not bode Israel any good.

Of course there was/is an international agreement which Iran was a party to suggesting they would not develop nuclear weapons, or even the isotopes (is that right?) of uranium necessary for weapons-grade. The current US administration has done its best to destroy that agreement, though the European contingent still support what te Trump administration has rejected. Personally? Stupid move on the part of the US.

Okay, rant over
Cheers. And stay safe.

Brian G


Not only is there the shiite vs sunni divide with Iran vs other muslim nations. The Iranians are NOT arabs, that also causes tensions with their neighbors.

I'm trying to stay from politics. The current administration seems to believe that the agreement with Iran isn't worth the paper it is written on. They appear to think the Iranians are not living up to the agreement, the verification process is too weak and that sanctions are hurting the Iranian economy and slowing their nuclear program.

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Withdrawal in disgust is not the same as apathy.

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