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Larry Purtell
Little Meadows
PA USA
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Posts: 1577
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The Ukrainian offensive
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I'm trying to keep up with the progress of the current Ukrainian offensive and state of the Russian forces. Currently it seems the Russians are spent and will never recover. Reminds me of the late summer of 1941 when the German armies had all but vanquished the Russian army only to eventually succumb to overwhelming numbers. There comes a point where quantity over takes quality. Thoughts?
Larry.
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"My goal is to live forever. So far, so good.
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Wazza
Sydney
Australia
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Posts: 774
Joined: 2005
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The Ukrainian offensive
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With the Draft troops deserting in droves (apparently) and the clips of them under equipped or poorly equipped (rusty weapons) I guess the question we should ask is what will Moscow do in desperation?
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Phil Andrade
London
UK
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Posts: 6049
Joined: 2004
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The Ukrainian offensive
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Quote: I'm trying to keep up with the progress of the current Ukrainian offensive and state of the Russian forces. Currently it seems the Russians are spent and will never recover. Reminds me of the late summer of 1941 when the German armies had all but vanquished the Russian army only to eventually succumb to overwhelming numbers. There comes a point where quantity over takes quality. Thoughts?
Larry.
Larry,
How might we assess this quality versus quantity question ?
The Russians enjoy a massive population advantage, but are not sufficiently committed, wilt large swathes of Muscovites and Petersburg residents showing disdain for the war at best, downright opposition at worst.
At point of contact,the Ukrainian forces might well be enjoying quantitative and qualitative superiority.
Russia fights with one hand tied behind her back, apparently.
It’s been suggested on British media that if things look like going nuclear, the Russian people might kill Putin before he kills them.
It’s spooky seeing the battlefields of the Nazi Soviet warfare of 1941-3 being fought over again, this time by Russians mounting an onslaught on people who they regard as racial and cultural brethren.
Regards, Phil
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"Egad, sir, I do not know whether you will die on the gallows or of the pox!"
"That will depend, my Lord, on whether I embrace your principles or your mistress."
Earl of Sandwich and John Wilkes
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Larry Purtell
Little Meadows
PA USA
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Posts: 1577
Joined: 2004
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The Ukrainian offensive
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Quote: With the Draft troops deserting in droves (apparently) and the clips of them under equipped or poorly equipped (rusty weapons) I guess the question we should ask is what will Moscow do in desperation?
How far Putin will go to win in Ukraine is a question all Western people should be thinking about. Would he really use nukes if the situation in Ukraine gets even worse for the Russian army? I don't see him as a man who lose face with his own people or the rest of the world. I hope I'm wrong.
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"My goal is to live forever. So far, so good.
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jahenders
Colorado Springs
CO USA
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Posts: 675
Joined: 2017
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The Ukrainian offensive
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Quote:Quote: With the Draft troops deserting in droves (apparently) and the clips of them under equipped or poorly equipped (rusty weapons) I guess the question we should ask is what will Moscow do in desperation? How far Putin will go to win in Ukraine is a question all Western people should be thinking about. Would he really use nukes if the situation in Ukraine gets even worse for the Russian army? I don't see him as a man who lose face with his own people or the rest of the world. I hope I'm wrong.
It's impossible to know for sure whether he'd really use nukes, but a lot will depend on what other world leaders do in response to his threats and how quickly, clearly, and unified.
If they say nothing or say vague, unclear, uncertain, or hedging things, then he might see that as a green light.
If, instead, they say, "If you move those weapons toward the border, they're going to die" or "If launch weapons and any of that drifts over our border, we'll consider that an act of war" then the odds of him using them go down.
That being said, if he feels threatened in his dictatorial powers, he might say "Screw y'all, I'm going down shooting" but then at some point you wonder if other elements of the chain of command will refuse his orders or "delay due to technical problems" for a long time.
One could always hope that the UN would do something, but the entire Ukrainian War has demonstrated their impotence -- the structure makes substantial action against Russia impossible
Jim
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Brian Grafton
Victoria
BC Canada
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Posts: 4573
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The Ukrainian offensive
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Interesting thread. Thanks.
Haven’t yet seen anybody comment on whether this is a surrogate war or an increasingly hot war between Russia and the West. I sense it is turning into the latter, which makes losing much more cataclysmic than any surrogate war can be.
Larry notes, totally on point, “How far Putin will go to win in Ukraine is a question all Western people should be thinking about. Would he really use nukes if the situation in Ukraine gets even worse for the Russian army? I don't see him as a man who lose face with his own people or the rest of the world. I hope I'm wrong.”
At this point, the obverse must also be asked: “How far will the West go to defeat Russian efforts in Ukraine?” is also an urgent question. Are we prepared to fight to the last drop of Ukrainian blood? That’s not a nasty comment. Troops from Belarus, from Chechnya, (for a moment at least) from Syria and from Crimea and the disputed areas of eastern Ukraine are active in the Russian incursion. One assumes they are in support of regular Russian troops, though forces like the Wagner Group seem to have their own rules, aims and values.
What appears to be the case is that there is a qualitative leap between the sophistication of US and Russian main force weapons. What also appears is that for all the boasting and bragging by various military forces, their front-line weaponry is not necessarily plentiful nor easily replaced. What might be surprising both sides is how impactful – perhaps only initially – weapons from secondary nations (Iran; Ukraine itself) have proved.
Jim, you do seem to be thinking about this incursion becoming a major power confrontation. Talk of nukes, IMHO, require just that kind of thinking. We’ve heard a great deal about control of nuclear strikes by the US, and you are raising questions of whether similar control exists in Russia.
In the mean time, the war continues. We get more of this: Quote:https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/oct/04/recaptured-lyman-left-shattered-russian-occupation-ukraine This is from Lyman, and I send it largely for the photo and the “head”. And we understand that nukes would indeed make much of Ukraine uninhabitable. But in the mean time, conventional weapons do a pretty good job by themselves.
Cheers
Brian G
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"We have met the enemy, and he is us." Walt Kelly.
"The Best Things in Life Aren't Things" Bumper sticker.
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Wazza
Sydney
Australia
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Posts: 774
Joined: 2005
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The Ukrainian offensive
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Getting close to the time to drop the Kherson bridge and really punch a hole in Russian morale and prestige!
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