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NYGiant
home  USA
Posts: 715
Joined: 2021
Germany's, A Change of force
11/7/2022 9:56:51 AM
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/11/05/ukraine-russia-peace-negotiations/

The request by American officials is not aimed at pushing Ukraine to the negotiating table, these people said. Rather, they called it a calculated attempt to ensure the government in Kyiv maintains the support of other nations facing constituencies wary of fueling a war for many years to come.
George
Centre Hastings ON Canada
Posts: 12683
Joined: 2009
Germany's, A Change of force
11/7/2022 11:43:32 AM
I don't know whether it is possible to prepare a list of people and companies to whom all western countries would apply sanctions. Are the lists of sanctions all that different from country to country? Sanctions do not have to be against people.

Canadian banks are forbidden to do business with Russia but there are exceptions. One is if a Canadian resident is receiving pension funds from Russia, then that exchange is permitted.

A bigger concern for me is whether some of our allies in the Middle East are not applying any sanctions at all. Saudi Arabia hasn't done anything. Egypt too. Israel too.

George
DT509er
Santa Rosa CA USA
Posts: 1144
Joined: 2005
Germany's, A Change of force
11/7/2022 12:03:58 PM
Quote:
It is believed, but not confirmed, that Putin has pancreatic cancer.

Trevor


Also unconfirmed is he has Parkinson's.
----------------------------------
"American parachutists-devils in baggy pants..." German officer, Italy 1944. “If your experiment needs statistics, you ought to have done a better experiment.” Lord Ernest Rutherford
DT509er
Santa Rosa CA USA
Posts: 1144
Joined: 2005
Germany's, A Change of force
11/7/2022 12:18:19 PM
I suspect the call for negotiations is nothing more than game playing, right now. The US continues to send millions of $$$ into the Ukraine and as you have stated Morris, with Russian troops getting their arses handed to them, why would Ukraine not continue to drive on in their attempt to get their land back?

Sanctions from the MidEast, IMO, never going to happen on a level that hurts the Russians.



----------------------------------
"American parachutists-devils in baggy pants..." German officer, Italy 1944. “If your experiment needs statistics, you ought to have done a better experiment.” Lord Ernest Rutherford
DT509er
Santa Rosa CA USA
Posts: 1144
Joined: 2005
Title change Russia's escalation of war (Germany's, A Change of forc
11/7/2022 5:29:47 PM
The use of drones in the war between Ukraine and Russia covers a wide scope of military application from reconnaissance, target acquisition, hard targeting of tanks, trucks, mobile and stationary radar sites, artillery platforms, ships, docks, industrial complexes, housing, and human beings directly. With the recent sabotage of undersea pipelines and now with the recent drone flybys of Norwegian oil/gas platforms, is Russia getting ready to attack these platforms?

IMO, an attack on these platforms, regardless of any environmental impact they could have; Russia/Putin could give no damn cares about the environment, is a real threat at this point in the war. It’s a serious threat to several European country’s energy challenges, hitting these platforms could force impacted countries to pressure Ukraine to negotiate a settlement with Russia, in Russia’s extreme favor or, if Ukraine outright shuts that door closed, conduct negotiations directly with Russia thus undermining Ukraine via what support each respective country provides, of course a settlement would require a supply chain shutdown from negotiating countries.

Does the Norwegian Navy have the capability to perform security of these platforms while maintaining a defensive/offensive capability of its shores or would they require assistance from Sweden, Finland, NATO, Great Britain, the USA?
----------------------------------
"American parachutists-devils in baggy pants..." German officer, Italy 1944. “If your experiment needs statistics, you ought to have done a better experiment.” Lord Ernest Rutherford
scoucer
Berlin  Germany
Posts: 3080
Joined: 2010
Title change Russia's escalation of war (Germany's, A Change of forc
11/8/2022 6:02:14 AM
Dan,

Just a quick one.

From the DW article.


Quote:
The Bundestag's defense commissioner, Eva Högl, doubts that Germany is capable of fulfilling duties at short notice. "The Bundeswehr's cold start capability is not what it should be," she said in a TV interview.

Högl called for an inventory and subsequent "hard-nosed" prioritization. Securing NATO's and Germany's borders must become a priority, she said: "It will probably be about: Fewer missions abroad with fewer forces, but a reinforcement for alliance and national defense."


I´ve known Frau Eva Högl for years. She´s my next door neighbor. A hard critic of dependency on Russian gas for years and of "let the markets decide everything" thinking. Having grown up a West Berliner, she never fell for the "Russians are democrats now". She is the right person.
She was often ridiculed because she warned about illicit Russian money funding right-wing politicians/parties and neo-nazi groups and neo-nazis infiltrating the Bundeswehr. She has proved to be right.

Trevor
----------------------------------
`Hey don´t the wars come easy and don´t the peace come hard`- Buffy Sainte-Marie Some swim with the stream. Some swim against the stream. Me - I´m stuck somewhere in the woods and can´t even find the stupid stream.
DT509er
Santa Rosa CA USA
Posts: 1144
Joined: 2005
Title change Russia's escalation of war (Germany's, A Change of forc
11/8/2022 11:21:12 AM
Quote:
Dan,

Just a quick one.

From the DW article.


Quote:
The Bundestag's defense commissioner, Eva Högl, doubts that Germany is capable of fulfilling duties at short notice. "The Bundeswehr's cold start capability is not what it should be," she said in a TV interview.

Högl called for an inventory and subsequent "hard-nosed" prioritization. Securing NATO's and Germany's borders must become a priority, she said: "It will probably be about: Fewer missions abroad with fewer forces, but a reinforcement for alliance and national defense."


I´ve known Frau Eva Högl for years. She´s my next door neighbor. A hard critic of dependency on Russian gas for years and of "let the markets decide everything" thinking. Having grown up a West Berliner, she never fell for the "Russians are democrats now". She is the right person.
She was often ridiculed because she warned about illicit Russian money funding right-wing politicians/parties and neo-nazi groups and neo-nazis infiltrating the Bundeswehr. She has proved to be right.

Trevor


Hi Trevor, at least Germany has some folks willing to call out the issues as they are, not as they wish they would be.

----------------------------------
"American parachutists-devils in baggy pants..." German officer, Italy 1944. “If your experiment needs statistics, you ought to have done a better experiment.” Lord Ernest Rutherford
kaii
Oslo  Norway
Posts: 3084
Joined: 2010
Title change Russia's escalation of war (Germany's, A Change of forc
11/8/2022 1:00:53 PM
Quote:
The use of drones in the war between Ukraine and Russia covers a wide scope of military application from reconnaissance, target acquisition, hard targeting of tanks, trucks, mobile and stationary radar sites, artillery platforms, ships, docks, industrial complexes, housing, and human beings directly. With the recent sabotage of undersea pipelines and now with the recent drone flybys of Norwegian oil/gas platforms, is Russia getting ready to attack these platforms?

IMO, an attack on these platforms, regardless of any environmental impact they could have; Russia/Putin could give no damn cares about the environment, is a real threat at this point in the war. It’s a serious threat to several European country’s energy challenges, hitting these platforms could force impacted countries to pressure Ukraine to negotiate a settlement with Russia, in Russia’s extreme favor or, if Ukraine outright shuts that door closed, conduct negotiations directly with Russia thus undermining Ukraine via what support each respective country provides, of course a settlement would require a supply chain shutdown from negotiating countries.

Does the Norwegian Navy have the capability to perform security of these platforms while maintaining a defensive/offensive capability of its shores or would they require assistance from Sweden, Finland, NATO, Great Britain, the USA?


Quite right, the oil/gas installations, pipelines as well as the electricity cables from Norway to mainland Europa is probably one of the next natural targets on the list for the Russians now.

The short answer to you last question, Dan, is no - the Norwegian navy does not have the necessary capability to perform adequate security in the North Sea over time, while also maintiaing necessary presence up north to deter the Russians. Some of us have pointed this out for a few years now, but to mostly deaf ears so far...Luckily things are getting better relatively quickly with three brand new coast guard ships, that are quickly convertable to frigates in war times, just launched. The new P8 Poseidon planes are just starting to get operational, and the P3 Orions have had their retirment postponed for now. Bottomline is, and this goes for the entire Norwegian armed forces- what is there is very good - but not nearly enough of anything.

Agreements have already been made with the UK and Germany, where I believe Germany are providing three frigates that will patrol the North Sea sector, the British, of course are normally present at their side of the border anyway so will increase their patrol patterns to include the Norwegian side. There is quite a massive operation going on now to check all the pipelines and underwater installations for explosives -it is highly likely that the Russians, who have been able to operate freely in these waters for years now, have already prepared charges in crictial locations.

K
----------------------------------
"They tried to bury us - but did not realise that we are seeds." -Volodymyr Zelenskiy, President of Ukraine
scoucer
Berlin  Germany
Posts: 3080
Joined: 2010
Title change Russia's escalation of war (Germany's, A Change of forc
11/8/2022 1:07:48 PM
Quote:
Quote:
Dan,

Just a quick one.

From the DW article.


Quote:
The Bundestag's defense commissioner, Eva Högl, doubts that Germany is capable of fulfilling duties at short notice. "The Bundeswehr's cold start capability is not what it should be," she said in a TV interview.

Högl called for an inventory and subsequent "hard-nosed" prioritization. Securing NATO's and Germany's borders must become a priority, she said: "It will probably be about: Fewer missions abroad with fewer forces, but a reinforcement for alliance and national defense."


I´ve known Frau Eva Högl for years. She´s my next door neighbor. A hard critic of dependency on Russian gas for years and of "let the markets decide everything" thinking. Having grown up a West Berliner, she never fell for the "Russians are democrats now". She is the right person.
She was often ridiculed because she warned about illicit Russian money funding right-wing politicians/parties and neo-nazi groups and neo-nazis infiltrating the Bundeswehr. She has proved to be right.

Trevor


Hi Trevor, at least Germany has some folks willing to call out the issues as they are, not as they wish they would be.



Dan,

that includes the new German chancellor Olaf Scholz. Been a critic ever since his time as Mayor of Hamburg.
Trevor
----------------------------------
`Hey don´t the wars come easy and don´t the peace come hard`- Buffy Sainte-Marie Some swim with the stream. Some swim against the stream. Me - I´m stuck somewhere in the woods and can´t even find the stupid stream.
DT509er
Santa Rosa CA USA
Posts: 1144
Joined: 2005
Title change Russia's escalation of war (Germany's, A Change of forc
11/8/2022 2:49:59 PM
Quote:
Quote:
Quote:
Dan,

Just a quick one.

From the DW article.


Quote:
The Bundestag's defense commissioner, Eva Högl, doubts that Germany is capable of fulfilling duties at short notice. "The Bundeswehr's cold start capability is not what it should be," she said in a TV interview.

Högl called for an inventory and subsequent "hard-nosed" prioritization. Securing NATO's and Germany's borders must become a priority, she said: "It will probably be about: Fewer missions abroad with fewer forces, but a reinforcement for alliance and national defense."


I´ve known Frau Eva Högl for years. She´s my next door neighbor. A hard critic of dependency on Russian gas for years and of "let the markets decide everything" thinking. Having grown up a West Berliner, she never fell for the "Russians are democrats now". She is the right person.
She was often ridiculed because she warned about illicit Russian money funding right-wing politicians/parties and neo-nazi groups and neo-nazis infiltrating the Bundeswehr. She has proved to be right.

Trevor


Hi Trevor, at least Germany has some folks willing to call out the issues as they are, not as they wish they would be.



Dan,

that includes the new German chancellor Olaf Scholz. Been a critic ever since his time as Mayor of Hamburg.
Trevor


Agree scoucer. How goes Olafs' current trip thru the Balkans and China? I have read some postings/articles that while he should take the lead in the Balkans, light steps forward in China should be made.



----------------------------------
"American parachutists-devils in baggy pants..." German officer, Italy 1944. “If your experiment needs statistics, you ought to have done a better experiment.” Lord Ernest Rutherford
Larry Purtell
Little Meadows PA USA
Posts: 1528
Joined: 2004
Title change Russia's escalation of war (Germany's, A Change of forc
11/8/2022 3:46:20 PM
Quote:
Quote:
The use of drones in the war between Ukraine and Russia covers a wide scope of military application from reconnaissance, target acquisition, hard targeting of tanks, trucks, mobile and stationary radar sites, artillery platforms, ships, docks, industrial complexes, housing, and human beings directly. With the recent sabotage of undersea pipelines and now with the recent drone flybys of Norwegian oil/gas platforms, is Russia getting ready to attack these platforms?

IMO, an attack on these platforms, regardless of any environmental impact they could have; Russia/Putin could give no damn cares about the environment, is a real threat at this point in the war. It’s a serious threat to several European country’s energy challenges, hitting these platforms could force impacted countries to pressure Ukraine to negotiate a settlement with Russia, in Russia’s extreme favor or, if Ukraine outright shuts that door closed, conduct negotiations directly with Russia thus undermining Ukraine via what support each respective country provides, of course a settlement would require a supply chain shutdown from negotiating countries.

Does the Norwegian Navy have the capability to perform security of these platforms while maintaining a defensive/offensive capability of its shores or would they require assistance from Sweden, Finland, NATO, Great Britain, the USA?


Quite right, the oil/gas installations, pipelines as well as the electricity cables from Norway to mainland Europa is probably one of the next natural targets on the list for the Russians now.

The short answer to you last question, Dan, is no - the Norwegian navy does not have the necessary capability to perform adequate security in the North Sea over time, while also maintiaing necessary presence up north to deter the Russians. Some of us have pointed this out for a few years now, but to mostly deaf ears so far...Luckily things are getting better relatively quickly with three brand new coast guard ships, that are quickly convertable to frigates in war times, just launched. The new P8 Poseidon planes are just starting to get operational, and the P3 Orions have had their retirment postponed for now. Bottomline is, and this goes for the entire Norwegian armed forces- what is there is very good - but not nearly enough of anything.

Agreements have already been made with the UK and Germany, where I believe Germany are providing three frigates that will patrol the North Sea sector, the British, of course are normally present at their side of the border anyway so will increase their patrol patterns to include the Norwegian side. There is quite a massive operation going on now to check all the pipelines and underwater installations for explosives -it is highly likely that the Russians, who have been able to operate freely in these waters for years now, have already prepared charges in critical locations.

K


If the Russians have pre positioned explosives on pipelines and detonate after winter cold weather arrives would support for Ukraine quickly die? Cold hungry people and their governments may blame Ukraine and not Russia and demand Ukraine give in to all demands for territory.

Larry.
----------------------------------
"My goal is to live forever. So far, so good.
kaii
Oslo  Norway
Posts: 3084
Joined: 2010
Title change Russia's escalation of war (Germany's, A Change of forc
11/8/2022 4:30:30 PM
Quote:


If the Russians have pre positioned explosives on pipelines and detonate after winter cold weather arrives would support for Ukraine quickly die? Cold hungry people and their governments may blame Ukraine and not Russia and demand Ukraine give in to all demands for territory.

Larry.


That is probably what the Russians would be aiming for. A quick sabotage of a couple of the main pipelines combined with financial and cyber support for right wing populist parties, and left wing lunatic websites, could create enough noise in Europe to force politicians to rethink the support for Ukraine. Key targets would be Germany, using the large Russian-German population, France using the yellow vests, Italy, stoking the current fascist trends and Spain, exploiting the rift between Spain and France regarding gas pipeline. Unfortunately they have 15 years head start in terms of hybrid warfare and there are already key voices in Europe willing to peddle the Russian narrative. We are in for a long winter.
----------------------------------
"They tried to bury us - but did not realise that we are seeds." -Volodymyr Zelenskiy, President of Ukraine
jahenders
Colorado Springs CO USA
Posts: 675
Joined: 2017
Title change Russia's escalation of war (Germany's, A Change of forc
11/8/2022 5:06:07 PM
Quote:

That is probably what the Russians would be aiming for. A quick sabotage of a couple of the main pipelines combined with financial and cyber support for right wing populist parties, and left wing lunatic websites, could create enough noise in Europe to force politicians to rethink the support for Ukraine. Key targets would be Germany, using the large Russian-German population, France using the yellow vests, Italy, stoking the current fascist trends and Spain, exploiting the rift between Spain and France regarding gas pipeline. Unfortunately they have 15 years head start in terms of hybrid warfare and there are already key voices in Europe willing to peddle the Russian narrative. We are in for a long winter.


I'd argue that they have far more than a 15 year head start. Russia has been spending money and effort to influence Western Democracies since right after the Russian Revolution.
- They even subverted US and UK officials while they were allies in WWII
- They spent a lot of money supporting the 'Greens' movement in Germany and UK to oppose GLCM
- They supported Western politicians pushing for 'green' energy, knowing that it would almost certainly mean that those nations would likely need fuel from them

Jim

kaii
Oslo  Norway
Posts: 3084
Joined: 2010
Title change Russia's escalation of war (Germany's, A Change of forc
11/9/2022 4:30:20 AM
Quote:
Quote:

That is probably what the Russians would be aiming for. A quick sabotage of a couple of the main pipelines combined with financial and cyber support for right wing populist parties, and left wing lunatic websites, could create enough noise in Europe to force politicians to rethink the support for Ukraine. Key targets would be Germany, using the large Russian-German population, France using the yellow vests, Italy, stoking the current fascist trends and Spain, exploiting the rift between Spain and France regarding gas pipeline. Unfortunately they have 15 years head start in terms of hybrid warfare and there are already key voices in Europe willing to peddle the Russian narrative. We are in for a long winter.


I'd argue that they have far more than a 15 year head start. Russia has been spending money and effort to influence Western Democracies since right after the Russian Revolution.
- They even subverted US and UK officials while they were allies in WWII
- They spent a lot of money supporting the 'Greens' movement in Germany and UK to oppose GLCM
- They supported Western politicians pushing for 'green' energy, knowing that it would almost certainly mean that those nations would likely need fuel from them

Jim



Agreed Jim.
15 was kind of "pick a number". In reality hybrid warfare was, as you underline, always part of the Russian playbook.

K
----------------------------------
"They tried to bury us - but did not realise that we are seeds." -Volodymyr Zelenskiy, President of Ukraine
kaii
Oslo  Norway
Posts: 3084
Joined: 2010
Title change Russia's escalation of war (Germany's, A Change of forc
11/17/2022 3:30:45 PM
German gas storage reaches 100% of capacity well ahead of winter.

[Read More]

It should be pointed out, of course, that this does not mean that all of Germany's gas needs for the winter is covered through this, they are still dependent on imports throughout the winter, but this buffer should ensure there are no outages and avoid the crisis that loomed just a couple of months ago.

K
----------------------------------
"They tried to bury us - but did not realise that we are seeds." -Volodymyr Zelenskiy, President of Ukraine
DT509er
Santa Rosa CA USA
Posts: 1144
Joined: 2005
Title change Russia's escalation of war (Germany's, A Change of forc
11/20/2022 11:09:55 AM
Quote:
German gas storage reaches 100% of capacity well ahead of winter.

[Read More]

It should be pointed out, of course, that this does not mean that all of Germany's gas needs for the winter is covered through this, they are still dependent on imports throughout the winter, but this buffer should ensure there are no outages and avoid the crisis that loomed just a couple of months ago.

K


Germany has really scrambled to accomplish this storage level. If the winter is mild, that will help in keeping families and businesses from going broke, as an; "annual gas contract for a German household costs 173% more than it did a year ago, according to energy price portal Check24. That's €3,726 ($3,702.15) for an average annual consumption of 20,000 kilowatt-hours (kWh), compared to €1,365."

If a cold, consistent winter hits that will be a game changer for the German nation; "Germany's gas storage facilities are full for now, which can get the country by for the next two to three months, according to the Federal Network Agency (BNA), which manages Germany's energy grid. But German winters can last much longer than that.

"It can still get really cold in February and March, even into April," BNA spokesman Fiete Wullf told DW. "And you have to know Germany is much more dependent on gas for home heating than many other countries, so the temperature plays a very key role."


And yet Germany is in a position long-term which will not be the first energy crisis they face. IMO, the nuke plants stay online beyond 2023, coal returns to a larger production level then wished for all the while green energy advocates will work in a manner that may have a positive outcome while continuously harping and fighting against fossil fuel production and use; hell some have already clearly stated that the loss of Russian gas is a good thing forcing the nation away from fossil fuels. That is not the way to go about selling your product.

[Read More]


----------------------------------
"American parachutists-devils in baggy pants..." German officer, Italy 1944. “If your experiment needs statistics, you ought to have done a better experiment.” Lord Ernest Rutherford
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